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Exactly, so I see this and think: 1. Are all of these things true? Which are true to what extent? Where is our data best to know which of these things are most verifiably true? 2. What else has to be true to square that combination of true things? Because it's genuinely unintuitive how all can be!

Social Distancing Cat@socialdistantcat.bsky.social

This is a nice articulation of all the contradictions in the economy right now. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

It doesn't inherently mean that I think anybody is lying to me, but what's the context for all of the information that we do have, and what new thing has to be in play for things that traditionally didn't go together to now be true at the same time?

Some of these are not that weird though. Home prices actually have been coming down in a lot of markets. But most sellers aren't motivated or prefer to time the sale, even if it means accessing a HELOC. Also inherently going to be bolstered by high stock prices.

If inflation is primarily in areas where people cannot really cut back, like insurance, you could easily see consumer spending go up with consumer sentiment getting substantially worse. I'm not saying these things are the answer, but plausible answers definitely exist.

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