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Grass Toucher Georg
@avengingfem.me

saw Prof Claudia Goldin give a public lecture on why the fertility rate is dropping; the tl;dr according to her is that it's difficult for a woman to tell in advance if a man will help enough with childrearing to avoid fucking over her career. men need more credible commitment to being good dads.

Grass Toucher Georg
@avengingfem.me

she specifically thinks it's about the uncertainty between actual good dads and not good dads, which is a very microeconomics way to look at decisionmaking. but also specifically not "greater autonomy => less fertility" as a mechanical relationship. many women report wanting more kids than they have

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Grass Toucher Georg
@avengingfem.me

this suggests that institutions that improve men's credible commitment to being good dads or reduce the losses associated with bad dads would increase the fertility rate. could mean things like social norms that shame men who don't contribute enough, or more childrearing-friendly career structures.

Grass Toucher Georg
@avengingfem.me

she really didn't get into policy suggestions much, in the lecture or AFAICT the working paper it was based on. i'm sort of extrapolating myself. the model she's using is a very stripped down one that does not incorporate cultural elements in any way yet.

wavebidder.bsky.social
@wavebidder.bsky.social

ah yeah that would fit with a microecon model. Tbh I'd expect cultural expectations to be kind of essential for this, since outside of the first year-ish there's no reason to expect women to end up with most of the burden if everyone were homo economicus.

Grass Toucher Georg
@avengingfem.me

she also specifically noted her own ambivalence about the fertility rate and thinks we have no way of deciding that a given population size is the correct one. she's not really advocating for greater fertility, just studying mechanisms.

Helen
@futurestand.bsky.social

The thing about childrearing in this context is it’s not about being ‘good with kids’, it’s about there being no question that you wouldn’t do your equal share of ALL the increased domestic and mental labour that comes with having children.