wavebidder.bsky.social reposted
wavebidder.bsky.social
wavebidder.bsky.social
@wavebidder.bsky.social
Applied Mathematician turned infectious disease forecaster. Generally EA aligned.
880 followers2.5K following4.5K posts
wavebidder.bsky.social reposted
When I said I was concerned about advanced conversational AI, I probably should have clarified that I’m actually good with them so long as they are easily identifiable as a non-human. I think Mistral’s latest demo looks good.
New advanced voice model from Jack Dorsey / Block that is made specifically for conversations. Called Dessa. Pretty spooky if it’s as good as the sample demos they published here. Her, the movie, has arrived? block.xyz/dessa
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I think the 4D fever is starting to break but one interesting finding is that there’s no proper flash in 4d optics, you get a negative intensity wake behind a flash games.mino.mobi/lumen4/
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I just came across this paper by Cesario et al. that has one of the greatest titles ever: " journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
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gm did you know Fuzzy-Wuzzy was a Beja warrior supporting the Mahdi of Sudan in the Mahdist War
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We've invented the Middle Way drug from Siddhartha's famous story, "You must find the middle way"
anyway I basically have not drank liquor since starting Zepbound ad I sort of think this is now a better way to drink alcohol for me? my pre-Zepbound problem with liquor was that I’d hit the “yes good more” phase of the evening and risk hitting the gas too hard; beer is its own pacing mechanism
I think one of the most important but least generally principles of our universe is that when simple processes compound they frequently lead to unexpected complexity. Complexity springs out of everything simple!
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whoever is "speaking" in human output is a fictional character, and the real life thing called a mind is a machine for writing lil stories about that guy see Dennett The Self as a Center of Narrative Gravity & Consciousness Explained
Just to be very explicit, my claim is that the one simplest and best explanation for this, which resolves any apparent strangeness entirely, is that whoever is “speaking” in LLM output is a fictional character, and the real life thing called an LLM is a machine for writing lil stories about that guy
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qntm.org/mmacevedo is relevant for the current discourse. How do we make sure this doesn't happen, or an equivalent won't happen with digital information processing systems that end up human shaped?
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Disagree about speculative risks all you want, which are most important is contestable, but for the love of all that is good please donate at least some amount through Givewell and think hard about whether your work skills could be used more effectively to help others, possibly in unusual ways.
blog.andymasley.com/p/the-direct...
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referring to so-called "harnesses" from now on as mechsuits
real harnesses. I keep coming back to the mech metaphor for these tools, because it illustrates well how they augment (and are directed by) humans, but even with that I don’t know if we have a term for reusable augmentation pieces that can augment the “core” (model) or the mech itself (coding agent)
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OpenAI’s faster Fourier transform is less a mathematical breakthrough and more a malicious exploit of mathematical traditions.
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Replying to @tomcoates.bsky.social
But people keep saying you need to make something new for people to switch and there’s actually far less evidence that works than creating an ideological new space. When they *hit* the new spaces doing something new are far *larger*. No one will dispute that. But it’s also harder to get them going!
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On the flip side, I think people are missing how much of the datacenter build out is not AI. AWS has an obscene margin and is capacity-limited. About 10% of datacenter demand is the AI companies.
I think there's also arguments against an AI bubble, but this graph tells a very specific story that's hard to argue with. The real fear is that these companies have hidden leverage through future construction deals that radiate through the US economy.