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The giant swing is the moment when real information starts hitting the system and overwhelming the signal of degenerate gambler chuds. But it shows the uselessness of betting markets; by the time they're giving Lula 75% odds, pollsters were publishing 95% certainty projections of the final result.

G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com

Brazil elected Lula again tonight. Poll averages appear to have had Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro effectively tied, maybe Bolsonaro up 1 on Lula — so not sure why the markets had this race at 80-20 Bolsonaro. Markets might miss big in the U.S. midterms in 9 days too.

Bruno Dies

@brunodias.dev

18h

Like the window where you could glean real information from betting markets was about half an hour.

Bruno Dies

@brunodias.dev

18h

There was a bit of early movement probably created by insiders seeing tracking polls and going "oh shit" but there was no time to really do anything about it unless you were an insider anyway.

Bruno Dies

@brunodias.dev

It is of course worth noting that if the betting markets were any good at this, the *real* markets would also have priced the result in and not collapsed this morning as the news hit.

26/10/26, 6:45 pm0 reposts32 likes

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