Post

The only thing the betting market will do, based on this, is overestimate right wing support.

Betting markets are decided by guys with money. Elections are decided by votes of people, including those who cannot afford (or choose) not to bet. Real simple idea!

polling aggregators on Wikipedia had Bolsonaro in the lead in most cases

I feel insane watching a professional pollster ask why betting isn't polls.

Betting on election outcomes is highly problematic. It appears to be equal amounts election influence operation and grift.

Markets turn out to be kinda stupid a lot.

I make an effort to know as little as possible about prediction markets, so this may be way off base. But it's my perception that they're very fash-friendly, and so a strong investment in Bolsanaro might just reflect wishful thinking on the part of those investing in those markets.

Markets had the Republican approaching 50% in CO-1, briefly, after the primary, the users seem to have some info environment issues…

The cryptocurrency industry was the largest industry donor to Republicans in 2024. These betting sites seem closely tied to cryptocurrency.

It’s like they relied on Meta to fix the election

Because the folks who play markets are the folks who like Bolsonari, I dunno?

The correct call on Trump/Harris left them obnoxiously overconfident for having won a coin flip

You were asking about this and I said they're a scam used to influence people. Here's this interesting article: bsky.app/profile/bren...

Are we talking prediction markets like kalshi? I'll tell you why, because their ownership/boards are replete with MAGA-aligned fascists like Trump's son and they have no problem manipulating the numbers to make others think victory is assured for their guy. Prediction markets are a scam.

you mean to tell me that kalshi is a scam for suckers?

"markets" lol

because online gambling is for right wing degenerates, hope this helps

Dirtbag capitalists bet on fascists, our whole economy is wish-fulfilment, ketamine fantasy, and Nazi vibes..

Actually I think late polling showed Lula pulling ahead. That’s why Bolsonaro mayors were shutting down the busses which run free on Election Day in Brazil.

They were going with the trends in South America, not so much the numbers.

There's never been a prediction market that performed above "Big Dumb Conventional Wisdom, but With Numbers" and now isn't different.

@gelliottmorris.com They're easily manipulated, which is why the billionaires like them.

It happened in Guatemala 3 years ago. Sandra Torres won the 1st round but Bernardo Arevalo squeaked out second place and then went on to win a landslide victory in the run-off.

Those markets are manufactured and manipulated DO NOT mistake them for an indication of public sentiment.

Had to laugh at this from @molly.wiki bsky.app/profile/moll...

yes but also many of them believe it, bc they are in media bubbles, and the group most likely to vote on elections is always going to be the right wing bc it has 1. almost exclusively been promoted by fash/maga and 2. betting on elections has a really gross vibe for anyone who believes in democracy

I recently listened to a podcast on the topic: Can prediction markets influence the outcome by showing one side as the favorite? The point is that it has been proven that people prefer to vote for or bet on the favorite....

doesnt being 1 percent up translate into many percentage points over a cointoss of winning probability?

Those aren’t markets. Why do we murder another perfectly good word by conceding its use to the mouth breathers?

"Claude, who owns polymarket?"

Yes, polling in Brazil has been overestimating the vote on the left, similar issue happened in Colombia with Petro too.

Everyone who bets on Kalshi is either an innumerate moron or an insider trader. Funny how the results of aggregating a bunch of dumbfuck criminals' predictions are inaccurate >_>

Because is mostly right wing chuds gambling

For the midterms it cuts the other way, at least in the Senate. In the five races where our forecast and Polymarket differ most, the market is the more Democratic side every time: Alaska, Peltola 51 in 100 with us vs 74 there; Minnesota 65 vs 86; Michigan 59 vs 69. callthemap.com/senate

Win probabilities and percentages are not the same thing. Not defending prediction markets, just numeracy.

Gamblers on Polymarket for obvious reasons are likely to be on the Right, Lula got in second during the First Round against basically only conservative candidates, polls in Brazil are something imprecise and have been overestimating candidates in the left in recent cycles.

Probably because he was down in the preliminary results before the runoff, by a good margin. Not so much he couldn't have won, but enough to make it a hard slog.

Final TSE count: Lula 51.79%, Flávio Bolsonaro 48.21%, turnout 80.8%. That's a 3.6-point win off averages you describe as roughly tied. Do you read it as late movement or a polling miss?

*are, of course.

Thanking God. Thank you. @gelliottmorris.com

I think a part of it is because nobody had ever been able to mount such a comeback in the second round of a Brazilian election. Lula was practically all but done, but a wild final effort followed by a strong debate performance and even stronger turnout turned the ship around.

well dang I thought the gambling sites had some kind of gift of prophecy, I can't believe this

Brazilian here. I’ve been reading the Polymarket comments for the past week and the selection bias is clear as day.

After the 2020 election one, that I know of offshore bookmaker continued to take action on Trump until January because some of their customers insisted on it. Biden wagers were taken off the board.

Ding, ding, ding...You damn skippy it does.

My guess would be an immaterial version of fanboyism where bets are perceived as rational by the gamblers but are actually driven by social identity combined with overrepresentation of men, who we all know have a greater predilection for far right than women. youarenotsosmart.com/2010/05/19/f...

I have read that paper and talked to author on it: it is very solid, but it also covers the long arch of prediction markets. My questions come from the new prediction markets, which are uniquely aiming for mass volume and uniquely recruit from the right-wing ecosystem.

Also right wingers are dumber, therefore more likely to participate in stupid online gambling

(2) Market prices have value in right-wing ecosystem, not left, making it asymmetrically useful for right-wing supporters to pump up prices to impact voters, donors, etc., or to plant flag for contesting election.

this is the first time that the first round leader didn't win

I hope not. They got Talarico wining.

Israel Tuesday

Google AI Overview says: share.google/aimode/QJY9S...

The types, biases & agendas of participants can influence betting markets. Example: sports betting can be arbitraged when boxers are favored differently in their home countries. In elections, people/groups might try to manipulate it if they think it might get certain people activated or staying home