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Biggest moves in our House forecast since yesterday, all from three new DCCC polls: Ohio's 10th: Knickerbocker 10 → 26 in 100 against Turner Texas's 28th: Cuellar 81 → 98 Florida's 7th: Dalton 25 → 33 We count a party's own polls at a quarter of their weight.

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Correction to my last line: in House races the model counts a poll paid for by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party. The quarter weight is how it treats them in Senate races. Each race page spells out the step, e.g. callthemap.com/house/oh-10