Albert | Call the Map

if the national vote were tied, Texas's new House map would elect Democrats in about 8 or 9 of its 38 seats. a typical computer-drawn map with no goal gives them about 15, and none of the 534 I ran does as well for Republicans. I went back to 1812 to explain how mapmakers got this open about it

North Carolina's early ballots lean toward the counties Harris won. They cast 49% of the 2024 vote and 54% of the ballots through Sunday. Colorado and Oregon tilt a bit the other way. A county's ballots aren't its votes. Find yours at www.callthemap.com/early-vote/... #EarlyVoting

Marist just put Maine's governor race at 44-44 with likely voters. the closest of the 16 governor polls on my page had Pingree up 8, and their own registered voters have her up 11. the LV numbers carry a ±6.6 margin of error. one odd screen or a real move? callthemap.com/governors/maine

same Glengariff poll, same 51-45 in both Michigan races, and it lands very differently. before tonight governor polls averaged Benson +7.4 and Senate polls El-Sayed +2.6, so it's old news for Benson and actual news for El-Sayed callthemap.com/senate/michigan #Michigan

my Senate forecast has spent nearly three weeks between 54 and 56 in 100 for Democrats while the rest of the timeline lost its mind. steady or stubborn? you tell me callthemap.com/senate #Midterms

📊 Virginia's early vote is perfectly balanced, as all things should be. Counties Harris won have cast 65% of the ballots so far, the same share they cast in 2024, and both halves are at 21% of their 2024 turnout (county counts through Friday). #vapol callthemap.com/early-vote/where/va

Pennsylvania Republicans are warming up to mail ballots. Theirs are up 21% on 2022's pace and Democrats' are down 9%, so the edge in the mail file is D+41.9, down from D+51.8 (2024: D+27.1). Registration isn't a vote, and mail is only part of PA's vote. #PApol callthemap.com/early-vote/pennsylvania

David Beasley and Jim Hodges ran against each other for SC governor in 1998. Today they endorsed Annie Andrews in one video, and a new poll has Graham up 1. I still have Graham at 76 in 100, as my model weighs how the state votes as well as its R+2.6 poll average callthemap.com/senate/south-carolina

drop your final Senate number below, Democratic-aligned seats, no hedging allowed. mine's 50.9, which is a very forecaster way of saying 51 while still hedging callthemap.com/senate

running a forecast alone means the modeler, the data desk and, as of this afternoon, the corrections desk are all the same guy. at least the meetings are short site fixes get a dated line here, written by (you guessed it) the same guy: callthemap.com/changelog

Florida's 25th had a week. A poll with Singer up 7 took Moskowitz from 62 to 34 in 100 in our forecast, and the next night a poll with him up 5 put him back at 50. I wrote about it in today's newsletter: callthemap.substack.com/p/eight-day...

Through Sunday, 54% of North Carolina's early ballots came from counties Harris won, which cast 49% of the 2024 vote. So they're turning out faster so far. Who for is another question, since blue counties have Republican voters too. Your county: callthemap.com/early-vote/... #NCPol

Talarico leads Paxton by 0.7 points in our Texas Senate forecast, while Abbott leads Hinojosa by 5.8 for governor on the same ballot. For both to come true, a real slice of Texas has to vote Abbott and Talarico. Do you buy that many split tickets? callthemap.com/senate/texas #TXSen #txpol

Colorado has 53% more ballots back than at this point in 2022, and they're D+8.2 by party registration, against D+3.5 then. Still 22% behind 2024's pace. Unaffiliated voters cast 43% of them, so the party split covers only 57% of the ballots. callthemap.com/early-vote/... #copolitics

Our election-night simulator paints independents green now. Here Bodnar wins Montana's Senate seat (about 1 in 18 draws go that way) and an independent takes Alaska's House seat. How many draws until you get a green Montana? One simulated night, not a forecast. callthemap.com/draw

If you make your own early-vote charts, the files behind ours are all on one page now. 46 states, CSV or JSON, every day we've recorded plus the latest county figures, with the source on each row. Use them however you like, with a credit. callthemap.com/early-vote/...

I've got the same complaint from inside the model. Three Mississippi Senate polls all cycle, averaging Hyde-Smith +3.9. Her 85 in 100 is mostly the state's lean; the polls pull it about 3 points toward Colom. The president visits today. Somebody field a poll. callthemap.com/senate/mississippi

Asked our forecast for one random election night and got Democrats 51-49 in the Senate and 229-206 in the House, with 42 seats changing hands. That exact pair comes up 5 times in 2,000. One simulated night, not a forecast. Draw your own and post the weirdest one you get: callthemap.com/draw

I put the smaller election-data accounts I've learned the most from this month into one starter pack. County early-vote counters, people running homemade forecasts, a couple of poll sleuths. Most of them deserve a lot more followers than they have, so go say hi.

New: where the early ballots are coming from, county by county. In North Carolina through Saturday, the 22 counties Harris won have cast ballots equal to 30% of their 2024 presidential vote. The 78 Trump counties: 25%. A county's ballots aren't its votes. 12 states: callthemap.com/early-vote/...

Kansas Senate debate tonight. Adam Hamilton leads our polling average by 0.5. Our forecast still has Roger Marshall at 63 in 100.

Georgia is past a million early votes: 1,026,997 through Oct 19, by civicAPI's count of the state's data. On that ballot, Ossoff is at 92 in 100 in our forecast. The governor's race is much closer: Rick Jackson 62, Keisha Lance Bottoms 38. #gapol

The five closest Senate races in our forecast. In all five, the polling average is within 2.5 points of even.

Before this poll came out, our House forecast had Democrats at 82 in 100, with about 233 seats expected.

Correction: Wedgewood Polls says the numbers it published were fabricated. We've removed all its polls from our forecast and site, and deleted two posts that cited its Mississippi Senate poll. Without it, Colom is at 11 in 100 and Hyde-Smith leads our polling average by 5.6. callthemap.com/changelog

The governor races closest to even in our forecast tonight: Oregon (Drazan 52 in 100), Ohio (Acton 56), Georgia (Jackson 62) and Wisconsin (Crowley 62).

Our House forecast lands close to this: 82 in 100 for Democrats, 233.5 seats expected.

Statewide, Texas logged about 523,000 in-person votes on day one, per the Secretary of State's county file. Harris alone was about a fifth of that.

The early vote tracker counts 39 states now, up from 12 yesterday: 12,501,716 ballots so far. The counts for 26 of them come from civicAPI, which compiles them from state and county election offices. The rest we read from each state's own file. callthemap.com/early-vote

We're well below that on the Senate, 56 in 100. Alaska, Maine and Texas all sit between 50 and 55 for Democrats in ours, and that keeps a lot of it close to a coin flip.

Two weeks out, our forecast: Senate: Democrats 56 in 100 House: Democrats 82 in 100, about 233 seats expected Closest Senate races: Alaska (Peltola 50 in 100), Maine (Jackson 54), Texas (Talarico 54), Iowa (Hinson 59) callthemap.com

Early ballots by party registration, two weeks out: North Carolina: 44.7% Democrats, 20.7% Republicans Pennsylvania (mail): 68.3% D, 23.1% R Florida: 42.0% D, 37.1% R Registration isn't a vote. Ballot counts for 12 states: callthemap.com/early-vote

Name a race nobody's talking about that you think will surprise people on Nov 3. I'll reply to the best ones with what our forecast says about them.

In 1976, 22 states voted within 5 points of the country as a whole. In 2024, eight did. Fifty years of presidential elections, state by state and county by county, and where it all drifted. callthemap.com/news/the-drift

Oregon governor is now the closest governor race in our forecast: Drazan 51, Kotek 49. A week ago it was Kotek 53.

Kansas Senate polling average: Hamilton +0.6 Kansas hasn't been this interesting since Dorothy left

Busy week on the trail: Harris in Vegas Wednesday and in Mississippi with Scott Colom Thursday, Kansas and Michigan Senate debates Wednesday night, and Obama in Cleveland and Detroit on Saturday. All 753 events: callthemap.com/events