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Brazil elected Lula again tonight. Poll averages appear to have had Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro effectively tied, maybe Bolsonaro up 1 on Lula — so not sure why the markets had this race at 80-20 Bolsonaro. Markets might miss big in the U.S. midterms in 9 days too.

David Rothschild

@davmicrot.bsky.social

Hypothesis (which I need to verify with data): most saliant political misses for Kalshi & PolyMarket in 2025-6 tend to be the markets favoring right-wing candidates. Could the tight connection into right-wing information ecosystem bias biasing prices?

Christophe ✨

@chrxstxphx.bsky.social

My guess would be an immaterial version of fanboyism where bets are perceived as rational by the gamblers but are actually driven by social identity combined with overrepresentation of men, who we all know have a greater predilection for far right than women. youarenotsosmart.com/2010/05/19/f...

youarenotsosmart.comFanboyism and Brand LoyaltyThe Misconception: You prefer the things you own over the things you don’t because you made rational choices when we bought them. The Truth: You prefer the things you own because you rational…

26/10/26, 7:59 pm0 reposts0 likes

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