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This is so essential for Europeans to understand: "Russia is not a threat to us in the short term." Europe has time to urgently and rapidly build a common defence without America. If we... 🧵

I disagree. RU cdn't mount a full-scale invasion of Europe, but it absolutely cd continue & escalate hybrid warfare to destabilise Europe & paralyse its decision-making, & make small territorial incursions designed to undermine NATO Article 5 & EU Article 42.7 when some partners refuse to respond.

Again, it depends how one defines 'short term'. In strategic defence planning that can be between now and 10 years' time. The NATO Defence Planning Process framework consider 0-6 years to be 'short term'. www.act.nato.int/allied-comma...

Germany's General Staff has been very clear about the window for and increasing probability of a large-scale Russian operation against eastern Europe 2029-2031 (2033 being the horizon outlier). French General Staff concur. UK General Staff are revising their time horizon closer to the DE/FR one.

I've mentioned elsewhere that many assumptions about potential "Russian invasions" 2014-2022 no longer hold due to the rapid development of 'drone' based warfare as part of overall hybrid strategies. Developments in warfare 2022-Present increase the probability of Russia attempting offensive ops..