Ian Bond

The Routledge Guide to the European Union, 2nd edition, by me, & the late Dick Leonard & Bob Taylor - the ideal stocking filler for the euronerd in your life (as long as they have big stockings), and currently with 20 per cent off, from @routledgebooks.bsky.social www.routledge.com/The-Routledg...

This is a brilliant article from @militarnyi.com on learning the right lessons from Ukraine’s experience.

@cerianbond.bsky.social explica que “Rusia no es la causa de la mayoría de los problemas sociales y económicos de las sociedades europeas, pero sabe cómo explotarlos. Los vínculos entre Rusia y los movimientos políticos antidemocráticos y euroescépticos de Europa no son casuales... buff.ly/FjELM0a

This is important. Over the last few years, Putin had established 'unilateral deterrence': NATO was afraid to do things that might provoke him to use nukes, but he wasn't afraid of NATO's nukes. This is a step towards re-establishing the credibility of UK & FR nukes, regardless of what Trump does.

A significant shift, however much the circular migration point is overdone. Here's my piece on why this matters from two weeks ago www.arguably.uk/p/eu-free-mo...

Plenty of shame and plenty of blame for the whole sorry debacle from Crimea onwards.

While I agree it's shameful, others, including France, are equally strongly opposed to seizing Russia's assets. There's plenty of shame to go round.

Quite right.

Trump won't give a cent to Ukraine to help it to defend itself, but is happy to let Russian firms make money in the US that will help Putin fund his war of aggression.

I have spent years describing this war as "genocidal", and here is Putin confirming it: there are no Ukrainians, only Russians; and their territory belongs to Russia, in Putin's twisted view of both history and the present.

"Do #Putin and Trump have a shared worldview? And if so, what does that mean for Europeans?" @cerianbond.bsky.social asked @ruthdeyermond.bsky.social in the latest episode of the Unpacking Europe #podcast. 🇷🇺 🇪🇺 Listen here: buff.ly/j1PfB1D

As ever, @darthputinkgb.bsky.social is on the money.

Though it has deliberately bombed the facilities of many more in Ukraine. Apparently protecting US assets only goes so far.

... and why continuing them should be such a priority for Ukraine & its European allies.

⚡️ "A ceasefire and sitting down at the negotiating table is a huge compromise," Zelenskyy urged foreign leaders to understand that Ukrainians cannot simply forgive the war crimes and suffering caused by Russia.

Right, the December 2021 drafts were never a security offer. They demanded NATO pull back to 1997 lines and bar Ukraine from ever joining, a sphere-of-influence ultimatum dressed as a treaty. And yeah, Ukraine is the core, not a stepping stone. His July 2021 essay said so.

#Russia is not the cause of most social and economic problems in European societies, but it is skilled in exploiting them. The links between Russia and anti-democratic, eurosceptic political movements in Europe are no coincidence. 🇷🇺 🇪🇺 Policy brief by @cerianbond.bsky.social buff.ly/YprPP4u

Important point (tho' I think Ukraine is more central to his thinking - his concept of what 'Russia' means - than just a stepping stone: qv his July 2021 essay). The two draft 'treaties' given to the Americans in December 2021 were aimed at driving NATO back to Cold War borders, to enhance RU power.

I presume this is a reference to Lukoil's overseas assets. It is in effect a free gift by the Kremlin: Lukoil is (notionally, at least) a private company. Sanctions have effectively put its overseas assets out of reach. So why not give them to Trump's friends, & firm up Trump's support over Ukraine?

A message from the "humanitarian" in the Kremlin.

Exactly! Because Putin sees every such announcement as a sign of weakness, to be exploited.

"Honest broker" requires both sides to have a grievance. One is invading, the other is defending its own land. Europe pretending otherwise would just hand Putin the freeze he wants and Trump the exit he needs. The EU backing Ukraine is self-defense and is not negotiable.

Talk of a European negotiator, still worse 'honest broker', is delusional. The EU is invested in Ukraine’s success bc Russia is a direct threat to the rest of Europe too. The message to Putin & Trump is that they can make fantasy deals, but Europe will still back UA. www.politico.eu/article/talk...

Listen to find out @ruthdeyermond.bsky.social's answer!

"To the extent of our capabilities" - this from a country which is having to import diesel. Hopefully Ukraine can limit its capabilities a bit more in the next few weeks.

The assistance is to be provided by UNSC action - which Russia can of course veto. So don't rely on the Budapest Memorandum: we should help Ukraine because it's the right thing to do & it's in our strategic interest that Russian aggression should fail.

"Trump can always do another U-turn," says @cerianbond.bsky.social of @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social. "But this does look bad."

While Ukraine could certainly use more air defence - against missiles as well as drones - the ability to destroy missiles & drones before they're launched, to destroy the plants they're made in, & to stop Western components being included in them, would be even more useful - for Ukraine, & Europe.

... and the crazy thing is, Witkoff believed him!

OTD in 1994 The "Agreement between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Moldova on Matters Related to Jurisdiction and Mutual Legal Assistance / 14th Army Withdrawal" was signed in Moscow. It required Russian forced to leave Moldova within 3 years. 32 years later they are still there.

Why is the UK sending fighters to Saudi Arabia to defend it against Houthi missiles, but won't send them to Ukraine to defend it against the much more devastating strikes from Russia? Strategically as well as morally, Ukraine deserves our help. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

British and French jets shot down the Iranian missiles and drones over Israel without entering the war. NATO countries could've done much, much more for Ukraine. "You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war".

“Trump and Putin have teamed up to murder Ukrainians” is a better headline. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

"Ukrainians who have offered democracies a beacon of light in a world where the forces of authoritarian evil dim our hopes for a better future. The Ukrainians have given us more than we could ever repay." On Trump's "Ukraine has given us nothing" statement. mickryan.substack.com/p/what-has-u...

Every time I think Trump has gone as low as he can, he goes lower.

Another reason why no-one should imagine that a Putin/Trump/Xi meeting is going to bring any progress in ending the war in Ukraine (unless Xi gets fed up with Putin & decides to cut off the supply of dual-use components & machine tools to Russia - which sadly seems very unlikely).

This is a v misleading headline. Trump, Putin & Xi can agree what they like; it won't stop the war, because Putin's aim is to destroy Ukraine as a state & eliminate Ukrainian identity; no Ukrainian leader cd accept that. Europe shd ignore noises off, & step up military aid to UA & sanctions on RU.

The lie that will not die. And that takes away agency from all the countries in Central Europe that wanted an insurance policy against Russian revanchism- rightly, as it turned out.

Thank you Ian. You never get time to say everything you intended to. I should have noted that what Trump considers pressure tactics, like suspending intel on Russian missile launches or messing with Starlink, is costing lives of civilians in Ukraine. That won’t be forgotten.

UK must protect against Russian 'hybrid attacks', ex-national security adviser says www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Again, Europe ignoring a problem doesn’t make it go away, it emboldens.

Precisely. Not easy, but not impossible, as I argue in my recent @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social policy brief: Resist, constrain and change: A European strategy for relations with Russia | Centre for European Reform share.google/1vcgV8Jqm22m...

A very good post. I wish I could find something to disagree with, but I can't.

This isn't just a problem for Europeans, lack of US reliability is also a huge issus for Saudi Arabia, UAE, Mexico, Japan, South Korea and at this rate even Israel. If the US is no longer able to coordinate a global network of alliances it loses its exceptional position in the global system

Exactly... This also means that we do not need to write off those two countries for ever. (It seems strange to be putting them side by side, but that is what the majority of US voters have given themselves, and us).

I enjoyed my conversation with @ruthdeyermond.bsky.social . It's a pity that Trump is helping Putin in his attempt to make NATO ineffective.

Very good points.

We had a great conversation- though we found ourselves in violent agreement.

Cases like this are why the UK needs effective legislation against SLAPPs - cases filed by rich individuals or firms to intimidate, silence or bankrupt media, thinktanks & others who publicise things they would rather hide. The courts shd punish law firms who knowingly enable such cases.

Exactly - a point that George Robertson, the lead author of the 2025 Strategic Defence Review, has made repeatedly. Not talking about the threat doesn't make it go away.