Newsletter: There is no AI Revolution. Consumer adoption of generative AI outside of ChatGPT is barely 100 million people, every single company in generative AI is deeply unprofitable, Microsoft is pulling capex, and OpenAI spent $9bn in 2024 to lose $5bn. www.wheresyoured.at/wheres-the-m...
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It doesn't matter that OpenAI has 400 million "weekly users" - they spent $9bn in 2024 to *lose $5bn* (a number set to double in 2025), their products are either commoditized or do not work, and they'd die quickly without VC welfare. They're not a real company. www.wheresyoured.at/wheres-the-m...
OpenAI shares "weekly active users" instead of monthly active users because they only have 15.5 million paying subscribers (the majority of their revenue), and monthly active users would show how poorly they convert free users to paid. They're in real trouble. www.wheresyoured.at/wheres-the-m...
Based on data I got from Sensor Tower/Similarweb, I estimate ChatGPT has 600~ million monthly active users, which would put their conversion rate at 2.583% - terrible even before you consider that *OpenAI loses money on literally every customer paid or otherwise* www.wheresyoured.at/wheres-the-m...
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OpenAI has no product strategy. The majority of their revenue is from unprofitable subscription products, their models are commoditized, and they make very little from people plugging their models into other products - suggesting the demand really isn't there. www.wheresyoured.at/wheres-the-m...
OpenAI's new products - Deep Research and Operator - are incredibly expensive (and unprofitable) to run. Worse still, Operator barely works, and Deep Research is both extremely mediocre and has already been commoditized by Perplexity and xAI. www.wheresyoured.at/wheres-the-m...
How does OpenAI survive? They have no moat, their next models do not appear to be significantly better than GPT-4o, and they remain so deeply unprofitable that they will die in months without venture capital. They're set to lose $11bn+ this year AFTER REVENUE. www.wheresyoured.at/wheres-the-m...
Outside of OpenAI, the generative AI industry barely exists. Google Gemini only had 18 million monthly active users to their app, Microsoft 11m, Perplexity 8m, and Anthropic - a company "worth $14.7bn* - had an astonishing two million MAUs. Consumer AI has failed. www.wheresyoured.at/wheres-the-m...