Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)

9 May 2024

Things about politics I’ve come to believe strongly: 1. Less bad is better than more bad 2. Nostalgia is generally incorrect. Things weren’t better 3. Still, things can get much worse 4. Democracy is an outlier in human political history 5. Optimism is rooted in agency, not positive predictions

Polls opened 25m ago and were headed with the kids to vote. אל תגידו יום יבוא, הביאו את היום!

18h

And now it’s being reported that should he remain prime minister, Netanyahu plans to dismiss IDF chief of staff Zamir.

Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)@avishaybsg.bsky.social

There are credible reports of growing tension between the military and the government over Netanyahu's escalatory moves with IDF Chief prioritizing election integrity and demanding legal councel on some instructions. #CivMilSky. Netanyahu has been (illegally) filming campaign materials in bases.

Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) reposted

penguins18.bsky.social

@penguins18.bsky.social

22h

Replying to @avishaybsg.bsky.social

I’d add a fourth bloc in the haredi parties, who apparently will serve in another Bibi government but distrust him intensely. A big factor tomorrow may be how many haredi voters stay home or choose one of the micro parties and waste their vote.

22h

Good summary (could have saved myself 42 skeets). I'd add that it's not necessarily that the parties themselves are far right on this issue, but they're courting disenchanted coalition voters and perceive this to be a third rail.

Cas Mudde@casmudde.bsky.social

Good thread on the upcoming Israeli elections. tldr: there are 3 blocks: (1) pro-Netanyahu, (2) anti-Netanyahu, (3) Arab parties, and none will have a majority. Given that both Jewish blocks have strong far-right parties in them, neither wants to work with the Arab parties.

Good morning to those of you waking up right now. This is my definitive pre-Israel-elections mega-thread complete with speech to text typos. Good luck to all of us tomorrow.

Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)@avishaybsg.bsky.social

In about 24 hours, poles will open here in Israel. In what is a strong contender for Israel’s most critical elections. The election pits Netanyahu’s extremely unpopular coalition against a non-coherent, but moderately more liberal, opposition. Here are some thoughts as we head into it.

Excellent deep dive by Abigail into the structural problems at the root of Israel’s endemic political crisis

Abigail Nussbaum@abigailnussbaum.bsky.social

This is a good primer on Israel's political situation going into tomorrow's election. But I'd like to go deeper on something he only touches on, which is that part of the reason for Israel's electoral doldrums (and resulting geopolitical chaos) is its broken political system bsky.app/profile/avis...

Netanyahu has been making an effort to sync his party, including pressuring their candidates to withdraw in order to increase the size of Likud Risking losing a few hundred thousand votes for his own camp, for reasons to do with the electoral threshold, which I’ll come back to.

The other small new party are the Reservists. An unholy amalgamation of an economic populist called Zlicha, And former members of Knesset in public intellectuals, Einat Wild and Yoaz Handel. This party is a cipher, but assumed to be closer to the opposition.

What they agree on is the need to replace Netanyahu, draft ultra orthodox men, and reverse most of the judicial overhaul. The remaining parties are either Arab or new parties, and how well they do will determine who comes out ahead tomorrow.

First, let’s talk about the new parties. One is a new right-wing party that was polling well until the last couple of weeks, led by a right wing former senior officer named Ofer winter. He’s made it clear he prefers Netanyahu in office, despite disagreeing with most of his politics from the right.

This coalition currently comprises 64 of 120 Knesset seats, but it is now polling around 50. On the other side of the ring are four Jewish Zionist parties That formed the core of what is often is referred to as the change bloc.

These include Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, Bennett and Lapid’s Beyachad, Lieberman’s Israel Beytenu, and Golan’s Democrats. Together, they pull between 52 and 56. On the Palestinian issue, these parties very between supporting a two-state solution, limited annexation and autonomy, and Jordanian rule.

On the Netanyahu side, we find his own Likud, a ruling party that morphed into a far right party over the last decade dedicated to anything he wants, and most importantly keeping him out of jail, but also a good dose of racism and security populism (see: Agmon and Levy).

Joining him are Smotrich and his settler party and Ben-Gvie and his extreme ethno nationalist party. Although they’ve been trying to make it appear as if they’re not in his pocket, the ultra-orthodox parties should also most likely be counted here.

I’ll start with the players and the likely outcome, move to some themes of the last few days of the campaign, and finish on some thoughts about Israel’s challenges and how the elections might impact them.

Young Turks really not working very hard to beat the anti Zionism is antisemitism line. I also doubt they’re doing AES any favors.

I think I might do a mega thread tomorrow about the Israeli elections on Tuesday.

So Netanyahu went on air, 4 days ahead of the elections, to say that Israel might face sanctions in the near future (whose fault is that???), so he ordered that blockchain bypasses be prepared. Israel’s independent central bank responded politely that this is insane and Netanyahu doubled down. 🤪

Needless to say, this type of sanctions regime on Israel is not in consideration. But even if it were, Israel won’t handle it by going crypto.

instagram.com‎Benjamin Netanyahu - בנימין נתניהו‎ on Instagram‎: "⁨ הפתק היחיד שיציל את ישראל: מחל. רק הליכוד.⁩"‎26K likes, 1,824 comments - b.netanyahu on October 24, 2026‎: "⁨ הפתק היחיד שיציל את ישראל: מחל. רק הליכוד.⁩". ‎

Oh, and in foreign intervention news, netanyahus campaign released a video of him speaking to the camera calling in Likud voters to go vote explicitly saying Israel will be destroyed if he isn’t elected because Iran will build a bomb and trump won’t strike Iran unless he’s prime minister.

In and out of ikea in less than an hour and a half and only $350 over what we planned to spend. Where do I pick up my medal?

Israeli news channel I-24 is reporting that APAC decided to shut down its super PAC operation and focus on PAC giving due to the fire they’ve come under in both parties. A lot we still need to understand, but this is a huge development, mostly in terms of what it says, not what it does.

@brendannyhan.bsky.social

Just to be clear, the report is very preliminary. So I have no idea if they’re shutting it for good or just for a couple of election cycles )or not even that). No idea what’s gonna happen to the money that’s already there, or how they’re gonna reorganize next.

Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) reposted

Brendan Nyhan

Strongly endorse these University of Chicago committee recs uchicago.app.box.com/s/6ghhclma7c... -Device-free reading spaces -Limited-tech writing labs -Computerized, asynchronous no-AI testing facilities -Innovative class cadences and schedules incorporating these

walla.co.ilצה"ל כבר נערך לתקיפה באיראן - טראמפ בלם | דיווח | וואלה חדשותמבזק חדשות: צה"ל כבר נערך לתקיפה באיראן - טראמפ בלם | דיווח עכשיו בוואלה חדשות

Israel was ready to strike Iran earlier this month but was halted by the US since trump doesn’t want to attack ahead of midterms. The strike would, according to reports, be larger than the opening salvo of the war in Feb. Note: it would also conveniently mess with Israeli elections next Tuesday.

Presumably relatedly, Pete Hegseth arrived in Israel to visit centrum forces and hold a secret meeting with Netanyahu and minister of defense Katz at an IAF base on Monday. IDF Chief of Staff Zamir was not included in the meeting. All of this is unusual.

Art of the deal: Never let a good deal get in the way of an imaginary one

Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) reposted

Shipwreck

@shipwreck75.bsky.social

White House is considering targeted strikes on Kharg Island, which handles approximately 90% of Iran's oil exports. The goal is to force concessions on Tehran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz before the US midterm elections on Nov. 3.

Where did the "oh no kids are not talking to their parents anymore" moral panic come from all of a sudden?

Dear CITI, I needed the diploma. Why on earth would I want marketing emails for more of them??

Gemini, what is poetry?

Rachel Coldicutt@rachelcoldicutt.bsky.social

I am sorry, which company is this? www.theguardian.com/technology/2...

ynet.co.ilנתניהו מודה לראשונה: ישראל עלולה לאבד את ארה"ב; עוד 450 מיליארד שקל לביטחוןרה"מ אמר כי "בעוד שנתיים יכול לעלות בארה"ב נשיא או נשיאה שיהיו מאוד עוינים לישראל - ויהיה צורך ליצור בריתות אחרות". לדבריו, "הודו אינה מדינה קטנה ובאמריקה הלטינית יש שינוי גדול". על הגדלת תקציב הביטחו...

The headline reads: "Netanyahu admits for the first time: Israel may lose the US; 450B NIS ($150B) more for defense" Cue the sausage guy

Trump finally endorses Netanyahu with a bit over a week until the Israeli elections. Netanyahu cannot win the election btw. His best hope is not losing them and leading to indecision.

One thing about the endorsment is that Trump implies heavily that the US won't strike Iran again without Israel, and that the only Israeli leader who will order such a strike is Bibi.

inss.org.ilNo Longer on the Sidelines: How the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Impacts Diaspora Jews | INSSIntroduction Global Jewish communities are undergoing major changes, and Israel is at the heart of many of them. Over many decades, diaspora Jews have played a significant role in Israel’s national se...

Over the last year, we (the INSS) have been convening leaders of major Jewish organizations from all over the world as part of Joint Working Group to discuss shared concerns. First and foremost was the Israeli Palestinian Conflict. This is our report on what we learned.

timesofisrael.comDefense think tank: Gaza war, West Bank violence making life harder for Jews abroadCo-author of INSS report optimistic that elections will lead to a new government that will be more attentive to security concerns

If you'd rather read a write up about it, you can read this one. The bottom line is that the conflict and Israel's actions have become a real local concern for these communities, weakened and split them, and fueled antisemitism (Fueled. Not caused!). We have some recommendations as well.

This is such an excellent video ( which is why El-Sayed posted it). The question, the questioner who identifies as Christian and won’t disavow reading of the constitution while Abdul recalls Kennedy. A 2:30 minute master class on religion in US politics.

Abdul El-Sayed@abdulelsayed.bsky.social

This is Tommy. Tommy had a question about my allegiances. Listen to the end to hear about his.

I posted my syllabus for my civ-mil seminar yesterday. This is my updated AI policy: “It’s complicated. We’ll discuss it in class but I’d like to remind you you’re not here (only) for the grade”

When all you have is sanctions, everything looks like a nail

When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like weaponized interdependence

I'm reposting again to add one more point. Yes, Centrist, Leftists and institutionalists in Israel are aware we are in the grip of a far right government with strong radical religious elements in it. We don't like it but we do try to understand how it's morphing our systems. This may sound familiar.

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TBC, since I'm actually at this place, this document doesn't endorse the views it recognizes as dominating Israel's current national security concept. It actually criticizes them.

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) reposted

John Pfaff

@johnpfaff.bsky.social

The Original Sin of politics was the invention of the passive voice, when Adam and Eve ate of the Tree of Vague Unaccountability. Wild how all those violent ICE agents just … got hired … and deployed … somehow. Who can possibly say how? It’s all a mystery.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Susan Collins: "I think what happened is far too many ICE officers were hired and deployed without adequate vetting and training"

English lit profs on here, how do you teach classes on an author? Are students expected to read a book week to week? Purchase it? I’ve been toying for a while with the idea of teaching a course on the political theory of Terry Pratchett and have no idea how to approach the mechanics of it.