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Newsletter: This is the Hater's Guide To The AI Bubble: genAI is nothing like Uber or Amazon Web Services, there are no profitable genAI companies, agents do not and cannot exist, there is no AI SaaS story, and everything rides - and dies - on selling GPUs. www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-g...

wheresyoured.atThe Hater's Guide To The AI BubbleHey! Before we go any further — if you want to support my work, please sign up for the premium version of Where’s Your Ed At, it’s a $7-a-month (or $70-a-year) paid product where every week you get a ...

The entire AI bubble is a mirage - nobody is making a profit and everybody is losing money other than NVIDIA. As a result, NVIDIA is the weakpoint - the AI bubble is based on them selling MORE GPUS every single quarter FOR FOREVER. www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/

The AI Trade is hollow - the magnificent 7 will spend over $560 billion in capital expenditures in 2025 and is expected to make *$35 billion of revenue, not profit*. Every single generative AI product is a money-loser, and customers don't like it either. www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/

35% of the value of the US stock market is the mag7, 19% of that is NVIDIA, and *42% OF NVIDIA'S REVENUE IS THE MAG7 BUYING GPUs*. Our god damn economy is supported by whether five companies buy more GPUs every quarter! This is insane! www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/

21/7/25, 4:48 pm262 reposts986 likes

like_a_bosstonian

@wilkos.bsky.social

This is either extremely bullish in its resilience (massively profitable companies with massive cash piles) or extremely bearish in its concentration. Not entirely sure. Neither is the market.

like_a_bosstonian

@wilkos.bsky.social

“Back out the GPUs” is the new back out the cash

JauntyWunderKind

@jauntywunderkind.bsky.social

Effing wild conflagration of money. Just spending beyond imagining.

@shoshiroll.northsky.social

I 'member when GPUs were for playing video games

@sweetdrinks.bsky.social

it’s AIG all over again

@crosis101.bsky.social

The Gamers have truly won….

@jimc5.bsky.social

Ask ChatGPT: “Is this sustainable?”

Some argue that Amazon - and Amazon Web Services - were initially money-losers, and I have written a comprehensive explanation as to why it's totally different. AWS was quickly break-even, costing about 10% of Amazon's 2024 Capital Expenditures to build. www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/

Amazon Web Services was not, and has never been anything like the AI boom. It cost money, but way less money, it had immediate marketable and scaleable utility, and analysts that hated AWS now *LOVE* generative AI. Weird, right? www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-g...

Generative AI and Large Language Models Do Not Resemble Amazon Web Services or The Greater Cloud Compute Boom, As Generative AI Is Not Infrastructure, but another service sold on top of a cloud provider. It's a $50bn TAM market pretending to be a $1tr one. www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/

Another problem: generative AI companies don't make much money, and they don't make ANY profitable. Even Cursor, the biggest AI SaaS company, is built on a lie - a product that was not sustainable to run long-term, leading to near-immediate enshittification. www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/

Also, the most important part of AWS was that Amazon quickly moved ALL of it's internal infrastructure onto AWS once it was up and running. They were their own customer so that even IF (and obviously a big if), they were not able to sell their excess capacity, they would still have a customer.

Now, Amazon doesn't have a money making system to just throw into their GPU datacenters, before GenAI their use cases for GPU compute were very limited. It's going to be a bloodbath for engineers going forward until we get the 'next big thing' as this pops.

𝔉𝔯𝔢𝔢𝔪𝔞𝔫 𝔱𝔥𝔢 𝔄𝔯𝔱𝔦𝔰𝔱

@freemantheartist.com

Sort of makes sense why the stock market 📉 hasn’t been more violate given the Tariff King’s lunacy.

@capemaydave.bsky.social

it's the ouroboros market

不死身のquaran

@qoouep.bsky.social

did Amazon ever have negative margins? I assumed it was always capex, etc, not margins that made the business red.

@t0sun.bsky.social

there has never been a point in my adult life when the phrase 'get while the gettin's good' hasn't been a guiding truism and nothing in my childhood prepared me to be that ruthless.

Sophie these days

@spiderandme.bsky.social

📌

@sahmuel.bsky.social

Sorry, 19% of the 35% or 19% of the total? Either way. Wtf.

@arad1el.bsky.social

Started with crypto - use GPUs to make fake money for Ponzi schemes Now it's use GPUs to make a failing company. I can only assume there's a lot of embezzlement going on, because the alternative is too stupid

Invalid Handle Texan

@rationaltexan.bsky.social

So to put this in terms a dummy like me can understand: “Big Capitalism just admitted that there is a Graphics card bubble like there was a housing bubble.” Correct?