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Newsletter: This is the Hater's Guide To The AI Bubble: genAI is nothing like Uber or Amazon Web Services, there are no profitable genAI companies, agents do not and cannot exist, there is no AI SaaS story, and everything rides - and dies - on selling GPUs. www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-g...

The entire AI bubble is a mirage - nobody is making a profit and everybody is losing money other than NVIDIA. As a result, NVIDIA is the weakpoint - the AI bubble is based on them selling MORE GPUS every single quarter FOR FOREVER. www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/

The AI Trade is hollow - the magnificent 7 will spend over $560 billion in capital expenditures in 2025 and is expected to make *$35 billion of revenue, not profit*. Every single generative AI product is a money-loser, and customers don't like it either. www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/

35% of the value of the US stock market is the mag7, 19% of that is NVIDIA, and *42% OF NVIDIA'S REVENUE IS THE MAG7 BUYING GPUs*. Our god damn economy is supported by whether five companies buy more GPUs every quarter! This is insane! www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/

Some argue that Amazon - and Amazon Web Services - were initially money-losers, and I have written a comprehensive explanation as to why it's totally different. AWS was quickly break-even, costing about 10% of Amazon's 2024 Capital Expenditures to build. www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/

Amazon Web Services was not, and has never been anything like the AI boom. It cost money, but way less money, it had immediate marketable and scaleable utility, and analysts that hated AWS now *LOVE* generative AI. Weird, right? www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-g...

Generative AI and Large Language Models Do Not Resemble Amazon Web Services or The Greater Cloud Compute Boom, As Generative AI Is Not Infrastructure, but another service sold on top of a cloud provider. It's a $50bn TAM market pretending to be a $1tr one. www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/

Another problem: generative AI companies don't make much money, and they don't make ANY profitable. Even Cursor, the biggest AI SaaS company, is built on a lie - a product that was not sustainable to run long-term, leading to near-immediate enshittification. www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/

Cursor is/was the most-successful AI SaaS company, but its $500m ARR was made selling a product it can't afford to sell anymore, as OpenAI/Anthropic jacked up their prices. LLMs *cannot* make profitable software businesses, because their costs are way too high. www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/

The generative AI software market is small, with little room for growth, no profits, and companies burning half a billion in cash to make a meager $8.3 million a month in revenue. There are NO truly authentically successful AI SaaS businesses. www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/

There are also no unique generative AI companies - they all, fundamentally, do one or a few of the same things, making just about as much money (not much) and losing way, way more than that. This isn't a real industry. www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/

Companies Are Using The Term "Agent" To Deceive Customers and Investors: When you hear the word "agent," you're meant to think of an autonomous. This is a lie. None of these products are autonomous agents, and anybody using the term agent likely means "chatbot." www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/

OpenAI and Anthropic Are The Generative AI Industry, Are Deeply Unstable and Unsustainable, and Are Critical To The AI Trade Continuing, because outside of these companies, the demand for GPUs is building capacity for customers that do not exist. www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/

Yes, Generative AI "Does Something," But AI Is Predominantly Marketed Based On Lies. In any case, the problem isn't so much that LLMs "don't do anything," but that people talk about them doing things they can't do, such as "agents" and "AGI." It's a con! www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/

The AI trade isn't based on company revenues, profits, the usefulness of LLM products, or anything other than the perpetual growth of GPU sales. This industry is brittle, and lacks any compelling investment story beyond vibes. And the vibes are sickly. www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/

The AI bubble is the ultimate growth-at-all-costs Rot Economy campaign - a fake industry built on the back of selling ultra-expensive and unprofitable software that consumers and businesses don't need, with only NVIDIA and consultants making money in the end. www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/

@unroll.skywriter.blue unroll

Have you seen any indicators that surveillance companies will step in as users of installed GPU capacity?