Free newsletter: NVIDIA Isn't Enron, so what is it? My 15k word guide to Wall Street's messiah - how it makes money, how its future relies on endless debt, how millions of GPUs are sitting waiting to be installed, and why it no longer makes sense to buy more GPUs. www.wheresyoured.at/nvidia-isnt-...
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You've probably heard recently that NVIDIA is claiming it's not Enron - and it's right! But it's very strange that at the end of November it decided to tell short sellers, in detail, that it isn't Enron, WorldCom or Lucent, in a massive four-page note. www.wheresyoured.at/nvidia-isnt-...
In the analyst note, NVIDIA got defensive, claiming it was nothing like WorldCom - and again, it's right, WorldCom was a massive fraud that overstated earnings by saying its operating expenses were capital expenditures, spreading immediate costs over years. www.wheresyoured.at/nvidia-isnt-...
NVIDIA also said it wasn't Lucent Technologies, which is, again, *correct* but not a comparison you want to defend yourself over. Lucent loaned money to customers to buy its stuff, when NVIDIA...invests in companies and helps them find financing to buy GPUs. www.wheresyoured.at/nvidia-isnt-...
So, is NVIDIA doing Enron stuff? Not really. Enron was fraudulent, top to bottom, using dodgy SPVs to move around debt and marking unpaid, non-existent deals as revenue. I advise you read this so that you understand how messed up Enron was. www.wheresyoured.at/nvidia-isnt-...
NVIDIA is a weird company, with 88%+ of its revenue coming from making GPUs for AI. It holds a virtual monopoly over this kind of GPU due to its own coding language/library CUDA, which allows you to run software on graphics processors. www.wheresyoured.at/nvidia-isnt-...
You may be wondering why *so many companies* are buying GPUs, given the lack of returns or reliability or ability to do much with LLMs. The answer is simple: FOMO, and the fact that big tech has run out of hypergrowth ideas like the smartphone or cloud computing. www.wheresyoured.at/nvidia-isnt-...
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This desperation for growth has them astray - Meta, Google, Amazon and Microsoft need $2tr in AI revenue by 2030 or they've wasted their capex, due to the massive cost of data centers and constant decay in value of GPUs, making profits impossible to achieve. www.wheresyoured.at/nvidia-isnt-...
Another problem: depreciation. NVIDIA is on a yearly upgrade cycle, meaning that the revenue potential of a GPU declines constantly, meaning that the revenue potential of these chips is under constant price pressure. They lose both value *and* potential over time. www.wheresyoured.at/nvidia-isnt-...
Big tech really has no way to make back the money it spent on GPUs. Data centers take years and billions of dollars to build, creating a giant hole of costs to fill before you even turn them on - and on a yearly cycle, every GPU loses value the second you buy it. www.wheresyoured.at/nvidia-isnt-...
A brewing scandal: NVIDIA claimed to have "shipped 6 million Blackwell GPUs" in the last year, an estimated 10-12GW of IT load (power used). The data centers are still being built and don't have the power, meaning millions of GPUs are likely sitting in warehouses. www.wheresyoured.at/nvidia-isnt-...