Post

Premium Newsletter: OpenAI needs to raise or make $852 billion through 2030 to pay for its compute costs, and must pay $75bn a year for Oracle's 7.1GW of Stargate data centers, or Oracle will collapse, destroying its share price and Larry Ellison's entire empire. www.wheresyoured.at/how-openai-k...

It’s been little over a year since Sam Altman, Masayoshi Son, and Larry Ellison stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Donald Trump to announce the "$500 billion" Stargate data center project. In truth, no entity was ever formed, and no money was invested. www.wheresyoured.at/how-openai-kills-oracle/

The "$500 Billion" Stargate data center project is really a $340 billion, 7.1GW Oracle-and-debt-funded construction nightmare. Outside of Abilene - which existed before the announcement - these data centers are mostly scaffolding and steel beams. www.wheresyoured.at/how-openai-kills-oracle/

Stargate and OpenAI pose an existential threat to Oracle's future, as its existing business segments are plateauing, and it had negative $24.7 billion in free cash flow last quarter, meaning that it cannot pay its debts without OpenAI's revenue. www.wheresyoured.at/how-openai-kills-oracle/

Part of the problem is that Stargate’s data centers take years to build, with each structure engineered to accommodate a particular kind of GPU. By the time that Stargate Abilene goes live in Q1 2027, its GB200s will be two years old. www.wheresyoured.at/how-openai-kills-oracle/

I estimate that Stargate Abilene, on completion, will around $10 billion in annual revenue for a 1.2GW campus that will cost roughly $60 billion to complete, with ongoing costs of over $2bn a year and depreciation of $5bn+. Oracle needs OpenAI to pay. www.wheresyoured.at/how-openai-kills-oracle/