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Premium Newsletter: OpenAI needs to raise or make $852 billion through 2030 to pay for its compute costs, and must pay $75bn a year for Oracle's 7.1GW of Stargate data centers, or Oracle will collapse, destroying its share price and Larry Ellison's entire empire. www.wheresyoured.at/how-openai-k...

It’s been little over a year since Sam Altman, Masayoshi Son, and Larry Ellison stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Donald Trump to announce the "$500 billion" Stargate data center project. In truth, no entity was ever formed, and no money was invested. www.wheresyoured.at/how-openai-kills-oracle/

The "$500 Billion" Stargate data center project is really a $340 billion, 7.1GW Oracle-and-debt-funded construction nightmare. Outside of Abilene - which existed before the announcement - these data centers are mostly scaffolding and steel beams. www.wheresyoured.at/how-openai-kills-oracle/

Stargate is entirely built to provide compute to one customer - OpenAI. Oracle is spending around $48 million per megawatt on each data center, financed with off-balance-sheet debt funneled through SPVs. Even then, Oracle is fully responsible. www.wheresyoured.at/how-openai-kills-oracle/

Stargate and OpenAI pose an existential threat to Oracle's future, as its existing business segments are plateauing, and it had negative $24.7 billion in free cash flow last quarter, meaning that it cannot pay its debts without OpenAI's revenue. www.wheresyoured.at/how-openai-kills-oracle/

I estimate that Stargate Abilene, on completion, will around $10 billion in annual revenue for a 1.2GW campus that will cost roughly $60 billion to complete, with ongoing costs of over $2bn a year and depreciation of $5bn+. Oracle needs OpenAI to pay. www.wheresyoured.at/how-openai-kills-oracle/

The estimated cost of Oracle's 7.1GW of planned Stargate capacity is around $340 billion, with ongoing annual costs of around $13 billion. Even if Oracle paid in cash, it would take years to break even. It's paying in hundreds of billions in debt. www.wheresyoured.at/how-openai-kills-oracle/

Based on its own projections reported by The Information, OpenAI has estimated it will burn $852 billion through 2030, and make $673 billion in revenue, magically becoming profitable in 2030. It HAS to make this much, or it cannot pay its compute costs. www.wheresyoured.at/how-openai-kills-oracle/