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Over the last couple of days we have got several polls of Dems leading by double digits in the national environment, and ahead in states and districts Trump won by 15+ points. Starting to get hard to deny that Nov could very likely be a bloodbath for the GOP

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E.J. Fagan

@ejfagan.com

11 Sept

Those South Carolina polls have my ears perked up.

G Elliott Morris

@gelliottmorris.com

11 Sept

Getting kinda nuts tbh. I don’t think anyone is used to the type of tail outcomes you get when the national environment is +9, 10, 11 in either direction

E.J. Fagan

@ejfagan.com

Dems won Kentucky, LA governor in 2018, plus Doug Jones in Alabama. Republicans took Illinois in an R+6 year. Republicans won IL, MA Senate in 2010 at R+7. Republicans picked up 12 (!) Senate seats in 1980 in a year where Democrats won the House popular vote.

12/9/26, 1:08 am2 reposts20 likes

Schnorkles O'Bork

@schnorkles.bsky.social

12 Sept

Obama flipped Indiana at 7.8. Shit gets weird when you get into 2s outcomes.

James E. Graham

@jamesegraham.bsky.social

12 Sept

I want all the states with "South" in the name.

MattMcThorn

@mattmcthorn.bsky.social

13 Sept

The Kentucky thing has some unique stuff going for it so it might not be representative. The outgoing Republican governor was widely unpopular and publicly corrupt AND Andy Beshear had a lot of name recognition both from his term as AG and because his Dad was governor in the 2000s.