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Over the last couple of days we have got several polls of Dems leading by double digits in the national environment, and ahead in states and districts Trump won by 15+ points. Starting to get hard to deny that Nov could very likely be a bloodbath for the GOP

Those South Carolina polls have my ears perked up.

Getting kinda nuts tbh. I don’t think anyone is used to the type of tail outcomes you get when the national environment is +9, 10, 11 in either direction

As someone who remembers this same thing happening in 2020, I worry we could be heading towards a big miss due to response bias. Any reason to believe otherwise?

Elliot addressed the question here: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-08-21...