fl4lb.bsky.social

More broadly, Israeli democracy west of the Green Line is a necessary but not sufficient condition for things to get better to the east. An Orbanist state led by Netanyahu shuts off any possibility for positive change. However slim that possibility may seem today, some chance is better than none.

This is interesting. Partially, it's because what Israel is doing to Palestine vastly worse than anything Orbán did — and Eisenkot is mostly ok with status quo. But it also reflects most people's inability to understand Israeli politics — specifically, the link between domestic democracy and peace

this tracks more with what I expect, though I haven't done a deep dive - MN is just not competitive even if Flanagan isn't performing strongly, Darline Graham is an absolute fucking disaster in SC, and Florida is a bridge too far even in this year

I think some people on this website will be quite surprised and, I hope, quite pleased at the extent of the future Speaker’s fury

Oh sure, get ideas out there. But all the pundits weighing in right now, as if they know what works. I want to hear from the people who (fingers crossed) did the hard work of winning over voters.

I'm ignoring all "what the Democrats should do if they win" discourse - partially because I'm too worried about what's happening now, but mostly because I think those decisions, if they exist, should be made by the people who did the hard work of winning.

Political science forecasting models expect clear Democratic House control but are mixed on Senate outcomes: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Bill Bradley advocating a robust defense should lead to his being identified with his other, more prestigious prior occupation.

gotta pump these numbers up

I'm not sure when he's talking about but JD Vance was born in 1984 so he definitely does not have actual memories of waiting in line for hours at a gas station.

There are no countries in the Middle East with names that are difficult to pronounce or confusingly spelled in English. They're all pretty simple. Several are only four or five letters.

Setting the historical claim aside… in point of fact, International Religious Freedom Day is not intended to celebrate and promote the spreading of the Christian gospels

Latino early voting is up 2-3 times over 2022 depending on the state. We haven’t seen any ICE enforcement activity at or near early voting locations

The powerful executives who cozied up to Trump didn't oops accidentally forget about pendulum swings. They either: 1) Like the fascism 2) Calculated it was here to stay, so going along was savvy 3) Saw no real downside, no consequences when the pendulum swung Crucial to show them 3 was a mistake

Not sure what’s up with some of these polls with 10 pt differences between RV and LV samples. Implausible in size generally and also tend to point in the wrong direction. Single samples can be weird when you’re weighting by 12 variables but this is definitely adding uncertainty

They are not at all beating the 'we don't want to win, we just want to complain' allegations

i'm not going to do the stupid thing where i have to anticipate every perceived caveat to what i'm not saying in my 300 character post like "i think public rail is good" because frankly i'd rather the rage addicted posters looking to fight with me on subjects i agree with them about just block me

i don't think it's that crazy it's a lot harder to use public money to build a complicated interconnected grid of rail infrastructure than it is to use private money to build a bunch of big warehouses. like i don't think it's great only one of those is possible but what i do not think it is is crazy

Over 2,000 alumni from Vivek’s all-boys catholic high school in Cincinnati have signed and circulated a petition demanding that he pull the ad and issue a public apology for “ignoring the moral responsibilities” of his Jesuit education. I think he’s pretty cooked.

It's a real problem that so many people anywhere left of center in this country think that the path to victory for them lies in electing Republicans until Democrats do exactly what they tell them to.

RIP Walter❤️

"Under Brazilian federal law, all legislators have immunity...To run for President, Bolsonaro decided not to run for his Senate seat. Now, after losing the Presidential election, he no longer has legislative immunity when his Senate term expires in January 2027." Very Special Episode of no amnesty

We don't talk enough about how the Roberts Court slow-walked multiple executive privilege cases that were crucial to building the J6 case against Trump.

this might rank as one of the most important outcomes of the night if it happens. would give dems the ability to begin to make north carolina a democracy

Who do I give to to get this in front of as many Michigan voters as possible?

It's part of his larger blindspot and/or desire to ignore that there is a global fascist movement working in concert across global governments. Trump needs Balsonaro to establish more of a foothold in South America, just as he needs Bibi in Israel and needed Orban in Eastern Europe. It's one thing.

i am once again asking for a high quality poll of south carolina

Trump and Co. will try to steal the midterms. They're already trying. Gerrymandering, bad faith lawsuits, voter intimidation, and a whole lot of lies. But they don't have a genius secret plan. They're already doing whatever they can think of. And it's beatable. Shouldn't have to, but here we are.

Hungary's recent election was less free and more unfair than the upcoming US midterms, and pro-democracy forces still won. Similar point about Serbia's election this weekend. In normal democracy terms, America is in bad shape. But in consolidated authoritarianism terms, we're looking pretty good.

correct states further down the path of autocracy than us have had those autocracies overthrown by sufficiently large voting numbers recently we can do it here too

bsky.app/profile/gonk...

eh go fuck yourself. "be neutral on [insert interest] when you run and then stick it to the industry when you win" is a time honored way of actually getting things done.

Now THAT's talking like a Speaker

My first freelance piece outlines precisely how Benjamin Netanyahu will dismantle what's left of Israeli democracy if he wins tomorrow's election — and why the opposition's stubborn refusal to engage with Palestinians is helping him get there libertiesjournal.com/online-artic...

i don't think anyone should run explicitly on banning online gambling but i do think that a democratic-led government should just quietly take steps to undermine the industry and create an inhospitable regulatory environment

I agree with this in broad strokes, but the underlying connective tissue here is more of a character problem: this administration is simply bad at authoritarianism. Their policy judgment and execution has been ham-handed and incompetent because *they* are ham-handed and incompetent

My heart is heavy. Walter Koenig, our Ensign Pavel Chekov, passed away early today. Walter and I met on the bridge of the Enterprise in the 1960s, and we stayed friends for nearly six decades. When Brad and I married in 2008, Walter stood beside us as our best man.