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I’d say it’s more like acknowledging they are probably manipulated to sway public opinion. This race was always closer than the “prediction markets” claimed. Elections aren’t like a baseball game where the underdog might get lucky and 9th hitter smacks a grand slam to defy the odds.

Does prediction markets ban sharp betting like all the other bookkeepers?

Buy every single sub 20% market if you're so confident in this thesis. No way u can lose, right

right the thinking person's objection to these is that they encourage bad behaviors and in some cases are profoundly antisocial lol, not that they are unusually inaccurate

People who have left wing politics tend to have a moral objection to gambling on politics.

this only works in fair markets, which prediction markets are manifestly not.

i did this a few years ago with predictit and it was roughly spot on, with the tails (5% or lower) being chronically overpriced

Your impression is shaped by man bites dog

15-20% odds after those grim round 1 results seemed kind of generous imho!!!

What's more informative: A Brazilian reporter reporting how Lula made persuasion gains in the second rounds Or A 30 year old American male placing a bet on an election in Brazil?

I would not get on a plane that had a 1 in 6 chance of blowing up

I don’t see it, tho I’m willing to examine the evidence. I see a market that just reacts to the information we already had, plus or minus some minor blind spots from the participants’ priors.

You can backtest past results. People have done exactly this lol

Ok sure but there's really no insider trading on half a billion dollar national election markets

Before a coin flip people are trying to analyze the coin, the wind, the flipping technique, whatever. But once the coin is in the air, that information becomes concrete and probability functions start to collapse into real data.