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1/ If you target me with tariffs, that's bad for your consumers who have to pay more to buy my products, and it's bad for my producers who will probably sell you fewer things. For my government, the negative impact on your consumers is irrelevant unless it changes your behaviour.

2/ If I retaliate with tariffs, that's bad for my consumers who will have to pay more for your goods and bad for your producers who will sell me fewer things. It is good for my producers who compete in my market with yours, but that is likely a different group than those hit with your tariffs.

3/ In other words, if you hurt both of us by hitting me with tariffs then my only retaliation option basically also consists of hurting us both - which only helps if it brings us to a truce or prevents you escalating further.

4/ This means that those confronted with a US willing to hurt itself with tariffs have no good options. I think you can make a credible case both for aggressive resistance and for appeasement. Anyone pretending the choice is easy is, in my view, kidding themselves.

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Tariffs are problematic, but how about retaliating by allowing violations of copyrights/patents from the country that targeted you with tariffs? Hurts them, helps you! Or place restrictions on their social media companies? Arguably has a similar result!

Ok, but I just don't think ceasing copyright enforcement is the ONE WEIRD TRICK, ECONOMISTS HATE HIM to get out of this situation. For one thing, you'd at a stroke be invalidating the existing copyright leasing/distribution agreements of every EU business that uses US copyrighted/patented stuff.

I completely agree and i've long thought that the countries which in trade negotiations with the US were obliged to adopt onerous and anti-development intellectual property rules should now simply ignore them or amend the legislation.

Yes, I'm not sure why most countries would bother complying with the TRIPS Agreement or FTA IP chapters if the US is not complying with its own trade obligations.

I'm with you karmically, but who is going to go first? US copyright has never actually been enforced by TRIPS and always by the implicit threat of US (et al) punitive measures. Who is going to be the first hero who makes it official policy not to enforce US patents and how does that play out.

Yeah, totally - as with most acts of US unilateralism, hardly anyone wants to raise their head above the parapet. If I were an old-skool lefty i'd make the case for Southern solidarity.

They may be able to have it both ways with "appeasement" - Americans pay more for stuff they're going to buy anyway, and their own residents may buy less US stuff by choice. Will see if this actually happens anywhere other than Canada though.

5/ The case for aggressive resistance is that if you can cause the US real economic pain, their public may be less willing to endure it than yours - because you have the more compelling story to tell about being the aggreived party... ... and that such pain will make them back off.

6/ The counterargument is that the US may escalate considerably and that pain is... well, painful. Additionally, when faced with your resistance the US could simply offer others better deals and leave you locked out of while your competitors devour your market share.

7/ There's also the non-trade counterargument, which is that the US is important in a bunch of ways like in the context of Ukraine, or Pacific security, and alienating them too badly may endanger that engagement.

8/ The argument for appeasement is that a rate of 10-15% with a lot of carveouts is unpleasant but manegable and isn't likely to lead to a flood of recalibrated supply chains. Moreover, a deal offers predictability at a time when that's what investors and business is craving.

> their public may be less willing to endure it than yours - because you have the more compelling story to tell You can discount that. You will never get that story through to US voters. These are the same people that swallow the whole Epstein thing and all the other canards thrown at them

Trump may make the choice easier if/when he reneges on his latest deals - as he did with his renegotiated NAFTA deal with Canada and Mexico. The only choice then will be aggressive resistance.