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Just published: early voting live blog, Strength In Numbers style. I use voter-file data to approximate changing turnout dynamics by party compared to past elections. In VA, GOP 2024 early voters are voting early in 2026 at a rate 11 points below Dems. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-early...

gelliottmorris.comWhat is early voting telling us about the 2026 midterms?A regularly updating live blog for early voting data and news, Strength In Numbers style

12/10/26, 2:57 pm31 reposts144 likes

Lori 🇺🇦🐸🌊

@coalsmom.bsky.social

Doesn't that just mean that they no longer embrace early voting because of what Trump has said? And they'll just show up on election Day instead?

Amanda Hoey

@amandahoey.bsky.social

Trump has been on the warpath against early and mail-in voting since 2020 and we’ve seen that borne out in results by time/method of voting. These are Republicans who continued to vote early four years later. Most likely something else is changing their behavior.

Lori 🇺🇦🐸🌊

@coalsmom.bsky.social

Well we will find out soon enough won't we.

Debbie Lefkowitz

@foglandia.bsky.social

May be voting Dem!

Panemprius

@panemprius.bsky.social

Is the 11 point gap compared against the same voters in 2022 too? Curious how much of it is normal midterm drop-off for the party in the White House.

Mark Bjorge

@markbjorge.bsky.social

💙

Rouleurball

@rouleurball.bsky.social

Good work! Getting mine done tomorrow. Thank you for the extra motivation.

Hyde T. Voltyge

@hydevoltyge.bsky.social

AFAIK there was no exit poll for Virginia in 2024 - Has there ever been an estimation of the margin for independent voters for President that anyone released publicly? Thinking of how to compare the shift in turnout as EDay nears but that's probably an important missing point to take with 2025 gov