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This is a great essay. I really appreciate the measure/assumption framing; agree with most of what follows. Something I've struggled with in my org lately is that "effort (point) estimates are based on 'complexity' (of typing code)" but *implicitly* bake in review time commitments for teammates.

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If review_time = k * coding_time , k < 1, then this shakes itself out with a team's self-correcting point capacity target at sprint planning. But k >> 1 now. The wrong person is now estimating the wrong part of the problem. This has hamstrung planning accuracy. I need to analyze this better.