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Have thought about the probability of this (nuking Iran): Talk of "unconditional surrender" sounds eerie. Probability that Trump would bring it up goes to 1 over time (if it isn't there already). Conditional probability Hegseth would get onboard = 1. Now what could stop it? ...

Weirdly I would think that Gabbard might oppose it. RFK to protect the legacy of his family? Like Gabbard, he is crazy enough to happen on the right answer here. Otherwise: the rest will go along and some even blithely. Probablity non-zero, but very low, the cabinet would stop it.

(2) Someone leaking it to the media, pushback from the public. Might do it. But depends on where the chips fall. If Fox gets behind the idea or opposes it that would matter. Otherwise even counterproductive if it comes from the wrong people. Moderate probabilty that would work.

(3) GOP: I'd expect the likes of MTG to oppose it, but they have fallen out with Trump anyway. Graham? Maybe. GOP in Congress in general? Could work. But then while they must understand how Trump is dragging them down, they have not mustered any courage on anything. Probabilty low to moderate.