groundloop.bsky.social

NATO countries called upon to ensure safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz might propose a deal like this to Trump. - There should be no tolls. But as the US has conceded that already, second best is that at least Omani tolls are waived. But ...

Have thought about the probability of this (nuking Iran): Talk of "unconditional surrender" sounds eerie. Probability that Trump would bring it up goes to 1 over time (if it isn't there already). Conditional probability Hegseth would get onboard = 1. Now what could stop it? ...

PPPS: Meant "But then Hegseth could purge them until he has promoted a bunch of loser careerists to the top posts who go along." Also thanks to Trump voters for having to put my hope on people like Gabbard, RFK or MTG.

Have thought about the probability of this (nuking Iran): Talk of "unconditional surrender" sounds eerie. Probability that Trump would bring it up goes to 1 over time (if it isn't there already). Conditional probability Hegseth would get onboard = 1. Now what could stop it? ...

PS: Would rather not think through what the knock-on effects of such a decision might be. Pretty likely Putin would take it as a precedent. And thanks to everybody in the US who voted against "warmonger" Harris, so I have to think this through.

Have thought about the probability of this (nuking Iran): Talk of "unconditional surrender" sounds eerie. Probability that Trump would bring it up goes to 1 over time (if it isn't there already). Conditional probability Hegseth would get onboard = 1. Now what could stop it? ...

(4) Military leadership (and that might be the next step if plans are not leaked or shared). My guess is they'd mostly be appalled and push back, some even on the brink of refusal. But then could purge them until he has a promoted a bunch of loser careerists to the top posts who go along.

Have thought about the probability of this (nuking Iran): Talk of "unconditional surrender" sounds eerie. Probability that Trump would bring it up goes to 1 over time (if it isn't there already). Conditional probability Hegseth would get onboard = 1. Now what could stop it? ...

(2) Someone leaking it to the media, pushback from the public. Might do it. But depends on where the chips fall. If Fox gets behind the idea or opposes it that would matter. Otherwise even counterproductive if it comes from the wrong people. Moderate probabilty that would work.

Have thought about the probability of this (nuking Iran): Talk of "unconditional surrender" sounds eerie. Probability that Trump would bring it up goes to 1 over time (if it isn't there already). Conditional probability Hegseth would get onboard = 1. Now what could stop it? ...

(1) Cabinet: Rubio might understand the problem. But then my interpretation is that the Iran war is some Miller-Hegseth project to outflank him, and he is happy to see them fail. Bessent? I have a suspicion that he is smart enough to play dumb, might also get the point. But stick his head out?

Just guessing how it developed: Israel had the intelligence to take out Khamanei (plus others plus critical infrastructure re: nuclear program/ballistic missiles), wanted to do a limited strike out of the blue. So they ask the US for backing. Have to act now or the intelligence becomes useless. ...

Belatedly, the admin realizes they forgot to think about almost everything, like Iran striking out at the Gulf states & US bases in the region. Regime does not collapse immediately. Who knew they had Shaheds? And how do you intercept them? So they're now trying to cobble something together.

Just guessing how it developed: Israel had the intelligence to take out Khamanei (plus others plus critical infrastructure re: nuclear program/ballistic missiles), wanted to do a limited strike out of the blue. So they ask the US for backing. Have to act now or the intelligence becomes useless. ...

Can't agree on anything: boots on the ground and not put boots on the ground because that is toxic even with their base. Do regime change, but also not do regime change because that is toxic even with their base, too. Also perfect opsec where they alert Iran with a megaphone something is imminent.

Just guessing how it developed: Israel had the intelligence to take out Khamanei (plus others plus critical infrastructure re: nuclear program/ballistic missiles), wanted to do a limited strike out of the blue. So they ask the US for backing. Have to act now or the intelligence becomes useless. ...

Enter the clowns. While the idea would be that the US use their veto in the UNSC, pressure the Gulf States to allow Israel into their airspace, etc. - it is big FOMO in Washington. Trump has to be the real winner. So they delay the Israeli operation to conjure up one of their own. ....

Wow, was not aware of how early it started, that it went up massively against Canada already under Biden. I guess the view of Europe is coming down from a peak during Trump I. Also weird how there's some traction with Democrats who I'd have expected to polarize in the opposite direction.

Just my personal experience. For many years, I was willing to engage with an American perspective, glossed over the ignorance with: Maybe there's a kernel of truth in it. By now, it is: Please add an "unsubscribe" button. It's like trying to get a second opinion from Scientology or Bigfoot hunters.

Belately, the administration is beginning to realize how much soft power the US used to have and that they have totally shredded it. Now it is: Oh, let's buy some back. - No, that's not how this works. I can do without the condescension of someone trying to kick me around.

If this goes on, the Fed will have to step in to defend the peg to the Turkish Lira.

I wrote that before it went on. Across the board, even losing against the Mexican Peso and, of course, the Euro, GBP, CHF, SEK, DKK, and the Canadian, Australian and NZ dollars.