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Everyone is impatiently awaiting Donald Trump’s announcement of a “major statement” on Russia, expected within hours. In Russia, three main schools of thought can be observed regarding how to interpret the apparent shift in Trump’s policy. 🧶

alter Putin’s strategy of coercing Kyiv into capitulation by any available means. The first school argues that, regardless of current tensions, Trump remains a friend of Russia, and that efforts to persuade him of the necessity of normalisation between great powers should continue.

Kirill Dmitriev exemplifies this view. Despite the evident fact that Trump is increasingly exasperated with Putin’s conduct, Dmitriev continues to advocate for the usual rhetoric of mutually beneficial cooperation.

The second school regards the current developments as a temporary, tactical, and ultimately reversible deviation in Trump’s behaviour—consistent with his typical conflict-management style, which involves pressuring adversaries to yield.