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Everyone is impatiently awaiting Donald Trump’s announcement of a “major statement” on Russia, expected within hours. In Russia, three main schools of thought can be observed regarding how to interpret the apparent shift in Trump’s policy. 🧶

Among the anticipated developments are new sanctions, the seizure of frozen Russian assets, the delivery of weapons to Ukraine, and a possible agreement with European countries to fund these purchases. Despite their differences, all three schools agree that none of these developments will...

Kirill Dmitriev exemplifies this view. Despite the evident fact that Trump is increasingly exasperated with Putin’s conduct, Dmitriev continues to advocate for the usual rhetoric of mutually beneficial cooperation.

The second school regards the current developments as a temporary, tactical, and ultimately reversible deviation in Trump’s behaviour—consistent with his typical conflict-management style, which involves pressuring adversaries to yield.

According to this interpretation, Trump is not undergoing a “Bidenisation” of his policy, nor is Washington reverting to the doctrine of seeking Russia’s “strategic defeat”. Rather, it is viewed as a manoeuvre designed to increase pressure on Putin and test whether this approach yields results.