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I feel exactly the same way about the kind of LLM-based AI we have today. But the AI x-risk argument is about what happens when we have "real" AI that can actually think like humans but a million times faster. There are no real experts on this and yet it does seem worth worrying about in advance.

Bryan Cantrill@bcantrill.bsky.social

Fool's Expertise bcantrill.dtrace.org/2026/09/27/f...

bcantrill.dtrace.orgFool's Expertise | The Observation Deck

28/9/26, 3:23 am0 reposts7 likes

Bryan Cantrill

@bcantrill.bsky.social

🤦🤦🤦🤦🤦🤦🤦🤦

Bryan Cantrill

@bcantrill.bsky.social

I mean, do you feel this way about alien invasion, which has those same properties?

Jake Gold

@jacob.gold

Aliens would almost certainly be so much more advanced it wouldn't be worth worrying about. Do you actually doubt that we can re-create the functionality of a human brain in a computer, within say 50 years?

Bryan Cantrill

@bcantrill.bsky.social

This debate is not about what is 50 years in the future

YARDCG

@yardcg.bsky.social

In a May 2024 poll of "582 AI researchers who have published in leading AI venues", 30-40% do not believe we would achieve this in 75 years. "By 2100 the medians reached 70% for researchers and 60% for the public, and the means were 61% and 58%." 10% do not believe that's possible at all - akin to

arxiv.orgSubjective Experience in AI Systems: What Do AI Researchers and the Public Believe?We surveyed 582 AI researchers who have published in leading AI venues and 838 nationally representative US participants about their views on the potential development of AI systems with subjective ex...

YARDCG@yardcg.bsky.social

In addition to what you just got, here's another paper. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...