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Provided Thomas's group is able to meet a few administrative requirements over the next month, theirs will be the only allowable petition on the question of Alberta's place in Confederation. This effectively blocks Alberta Prosperity Project's bid to launch their petition on separation. Some 💭s🧵

Some important terms, here: A petition is a process to collect signatures to endorse a citizen initiative. An initiative is a "process to have a legislative or policy proposal introduced in the legislative assembly or to have a constitutional referendum conducted." A referendum could come later.

Gaining control of the petition is a strategic win for the federalist side. It removes the ability of separatist groups to collect signatures on a valid initiative petition. (That won't stop them from circulating invalid petitions to drum up support and build a supporter database, though.)

According to Elections Alberta (and law), there can be only one plebiscite question per issue. This means Thomas's question -- should Alberta remain -- will be the only sanctioned petition. 🔗 www.elections.ab.ca/recall-initi...

This means the UCP could decide to reword it in minor or major ways, including reversing the intent to something along the lines of 'vote yes to leave.' They would be under internal party pressure to do so. And external (perhaps legal) pressure to keep it as is.

Complicating matters... If the UCP wants to make the vote constitutionally valid, they would have to refer the referendum question wording to the federal Parliament for approval. (See the Clarity Act.)

All this to say... The federalists have the early upper hand in the quest to frame an eventual referendum as "say yes to Canada" (instead of 'yes to Alberta' or 'no to Canada'). The UCP government (and federal Parliament) remain ultimately in charge of the final ballot question, however.