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Brazil elected Lula again tonight. Poll averages appear to have had Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro effectively tied, maybe Bolsonaro up 1 on Lula — so not sure why the markets had this race at 80-20 Bolsonaro. Markets might miss big in the U.S. midterms in 9 days too.

Keev

@keev.es

I recently listened to a podcast on the topic: Can prediction markets influence the outcome by showing one side as the favorite? The point is that it has been proven that people prefer to vote for or bet on the favorite....

26/10/26, 8:14 pm0 reposts0 likes

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