Post

A 🧵 on current SDF/AANES situation in: 1. Northern Aleppo & Til Rifaat 2. Minbij region 3. Deir-ez-Zor, specifically Khasham pocket Based on conversations with people on the ground there. (As a caveat, I'm not a member of the SDF and don't speak for them)

1. Northern Aleppo. SDF command were aware of the state of SAA and have been actively planning for a collapse for some time, but were unaware of the timing of HTS's operation. Once it started, they began operation to evacuate as many civilians as possible to the East.

The problem they had is that there are 250k+ refugees in this region, in addition to many families that have lived there for generations. At same time there has been a influx of other minorities into SDF areas. Moving this many people is a huge op regardless of how well planned.

West of Minbij the SDF was spread over a large area with long supply lines (partially through SAA-held territory) and saliant at Tel Rifat stretching deep into areas under SNA. It was considered to costly to mount a defence and so a withdrawal was the most sensible option...

...but at the same time they could not force residents there to leave their homes prior to outbreak of hostilities. Both politically and militarily they were in a difficult position.

As a result there are now 200k+ refugees on their way to Minbij+Tabqa, under SDF control. HTS appears to have allowed this to take place, but the SNA have taken advantage of it and have been raiding convoys. They have posted videos of them torturing & beheading those captured.

Şêx Meksûd (N.Aleppo) is considered a fortress and a sizeable SDF presence will remain there as long as there are people to defend. This map released by HTS is broadly accurate - SDF maintain control over the neighbourhood and still have units North of Aleppo to harrass SNA.

I can't get hard info on whether a formal agreement exists between SDF command and HTS regarding deconfliction in the Aleppo region, but it looks pretty clear that there at least some kind of informal agreement on the ground.

SDF have shot dead several HTS and SNA members that entered the area, but they don't appear to been concerted attacks. It's hard to get info out of Şêx Meksûd right now as both power and internet are very limited, but for now residents there are saying the situation is calm atm.

2. Minbij region SDF have doubled down on opsec recently, and combined with HTS+SNA cutting off power and internet this means very little info about their actions and positions has been getting out. Many of the areas currently mapped to be 'under SNA' are actually grey zones.

Some of these areas have a sizeable presence of small SDF units conducting ambushes and raids on the SNA advances. There's already videos confirming 30+ SNA dead from these. This goes for Deir Hefir and the villages around Minbij that the SNA have claimed.

So far SDF losses have been relatively low, but I suspect the toll on civilians to rise as more information comes out about the large evacuation convoy attempting to get back to SDF lines.

3. Khasham Pocket This is a small region East of the Euphrates that was nominally under SAA control since ISIS were pushed out. In reality it has been the main base of IRGC-backed groups that have been conducting regular raids and rocket attacks on the SDF and coalition bases. Image

US CENTCOM, local tribes and Deir-ez-Zor Military Council (DMC) have all been pushing SDF HQ to authorise an operation to take it for several years now. Due to the delicate balance of power between SAA and SDF in North West, this was considered politically unwise.

Now that the SAA have collapsed in the North, there is no reason to hold back, and SDF HQ have approved plans to take the pocket, consolidating their control of eastern Deir-ez-Zor. the USAF struck several overwatch positions and DMC are advancing on the ground.

Contrary to reports online, they are not facing stiff resistance, but are also not in a rush to take the town. As result of it being a bridgehead, surrounded for years, it is heavily mined, yet also has a sizeable civilian prescence.

The Deir-ez-Zor military council, supported by other SDF elements (I presume YPG, but don't know) are moving carefully to avoid unnecessary losses. There appears to have been a pause in fighting today but I can't get information as to why.

Just to add, regarding right-bank of the Euphrates: I cannot find any reliable evidence of this supposed huge Hashad al-Shabi convoy being bombed by the US. No-one I know in YPG/SDF knows anything about it and the US don't seem to have commented on it.

Summary: I don't think NW Syria has been quite the failure for SDF as being portrayed online, but at the same time I think there is very real chance there is humanitarian tragedy playing out that we won't be aware of until more evacuees arrive in SDF areas and can share info.