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Why are so few people aware that we'll likely reach 2°C of global warming next decade? A stable climate is only the prerequisite for global ecosystems, food production, and for some form of civilization. Right?

Adam McKay@ghostpanther.bsky.social

And remember, the fairly rapid 9-12 year climb to 2C will be brutal. It’s not like a light switch flicks at 2C. Very possible civilization as we know doesn’t survive 1.7 or 1.8c The silver lining to this pitch black cloud? Collapse of the industrial global economy will cut/end fossil fuels.

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With the changing to low sulphur fuels for shipping in the Mediterranean, it wouldn't surprise me if we reach 2°C this decade. Of course it'll predominantly impact the Med and surrounding area, but those ships will be international.

Many ships will switch from max 0.5% to max 0.1% sulphur fuels when entering Sulphur Emission Control Areas (SECAs). Some invest in scrubbers, which take out >95% of sulphur and impacts emissions over the entire journey. See graph by @gmjournalist.bsky.social for boxship (= containers) newbuilds:

Because humankind would have to change its behavior fundamentally, nobody wants it. We would like to go on and on like for the last 100 years, growth, consumption and fun.

I don't think we'll reach 2°C next decade. I think we'll reach it this decade. I reckon the next el Niño will push us over, especially with the loss of AME from the change in shipping regulations.

The problem is too abstract and there is no silver bullet solution. If you really want to understand what is happening, read Carl Jung. He understood human psychology better than anyone. He actually predicted much of what is happening.

Looks like 560 PPM CO2-equivalent is a real possibility. That’s the 2XCO2 scenario (from 280 ppm pre-industrial). Currently (2025 Feb) at 427, > 1/2 way there. Previously on Earth, that was a 7 °C increase. Every achievement, every possibility, lost.