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Based on the 11-year running mean (and on Earth's Energy Imbalance), the near-term rate of warming could turn out much higher than the linear 2010-2025 extrapolation. The next El Niño peak will be very informative for the rate of global warming, as @drjamesehansen.bsky.social points out:

James Hansen@drjamesehansen.bsky.social

Let’s see what we can learn from temperature change in the next two years – mailchi.mp/caa/global-t... Also available on Substack: jimehansen.substack.com/.../global-t....

Leon Simons

@leonsimons.com

Based on this extrapolation we are now at +1.5°C and the world will reach +2.0°C of global warming around 2035. With El Niño peaks being higher and La Niña troughs being lower.

21/12/25, 2:52 pm3 reposts30 likes

Climate News

@climatenews.bsky.social

21 Dec 2025

When a regular El Niño starts to exceed a Super El Niño from recent years in its scale, it’s probably worth calling these new extremely extreme phases “El Hombre” instead of “El Nino”