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And I can't state this enough: Our estimates of high climate sensitivity are based on the best estimates of available observations. There is a high probability (from a risk perspective) that climate sensitivity is even higher than our seemingly 'higher' (than e.g. IPCC's +3°C for 2xCO₂) estimates.

Climate News@climatenews.bsky.social

Exactly the same logic applies to climate sensitivity. We need to work on the assumption that Dr James Hansen et al is correct with their higher climate sensitivity models because we won’t know if mainstream climate science is completely wrong about low climate sensitivity until it is too late.

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Uncertainty is rarely our friend, with relation to climate change. And in science 'conservative' means the opposite of what it means to risk mitigation professionals.

They dress up scientific reticence as principled caution when really it is nothing but cowardice and selfish economic interests. Understandable, but an abnegation of a greater responsibility to truth, to science, and to humanity.

Exactly. In insurance modelling “conservative” assumptions mean “assuming more bad things happen”. In climate modelling “conservative” assumptions mean “assuming fewer bad things happen”. Insurance modellers know about this. Yet don’t act.

Climate modelers are hesitant to present results that might turn out to be 'not as bad'. This is worsened by climate deniers and 'useful idiots' pushing strawman arguments about scenarios.

And it is worsened further by climate scientists without any conscience and any sense of morality. “oh but my ego, let me rather say it isn’t as bad and if a billion die, at least my moral compass is so fucked I preferred to think about my ego instead”

Do you have a set of milestones, which will rack up the confidence for the lay person, that ECS is indeed higher? Impacts faster than RCP8.5 expectations? Things do seem to be going fast: GMST, EEI, OHC, SST, MHW, SLR, Ocean (pH, O₂, °C), Sea Ice, Wildfires, 50°C occurrences, high min °C nights.

We build all kinds of safety features into our buildings, cars, planes, boats, trains, everywhere humans are. But our planet? One big trainwreck happening in slow motion and no one seems to bat an eyelid.

Something is happening

Nahel Belgherze@wxnb.bsky.social

I've never seen anything like it. Salta, Argentina, has just recorded its hottest night on record during the climatologically coldest time of the year. The minimum overnight temperature did not fall below 26°C (78.8°F), pulverizing the previous monthly record by 7°C.

Yeah. But that ain't going to wake people on earth up. If that is what you are going for. This ain't it. It will need to be horrifying and televised. Something that shakes us to our core. Just my thoughts.

Yes. There will be people who will still deny it while they die to climate change disasters. The disinformation machine in America is unreal. And to some people admitting that a large part of your whole life is a lie, that you are destructively stupid, see Trump supporters, is too much.

The fact that this massive temperature anomaly happens at the coldest moment of the year is not a coincidence. The seasonal change and the massive spike are not independent events. The two are dependent and it means big and bad things are now shaking loose.