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The US Administration is poised to announce a new $100,000 tax on international students who work even briefly after graduation. This is not the H-1B tax, it's new and additional. Today @iza.org released my new estimates of the economic effects of that tax —>

The proposed rule, to be published by the Administration very soon, will specify how the OPT tax is charged. I expect it be charged to the university. In my paper I use information on university revenues from int'l students to estimate that for >80% of students, universities can't/won't pay.

What if universities seek reimbursement from students? Access to work permits for new grads (Optional Practical Training) will still collapse. I use new estimates of the price sensitivity of int'l students and find that the tax then causes OPT use to fall by more than 1/3 (lower bound).

And what if universities seek reimbursement from OPT employers? I find that OPT usage will still collapse, falling 50–90% across the full range of plausible values for employer sensitivity to the tax.

Cutting OPT access reduces int'l enrollment, as @kevinshih.bsky.social & Amuedo-Dorantes show, because the option to work in the US makes US degrees more attractive—> doi.org/10.1257/pand... So the OPT tax will cost universities billions in int'l tuition revenue, beyond the direct cost of the tax.

Optional Practical Training was created in its modern form by Republican President Bush41 in 1992, & expanded for STEM workers by Republicans in 2008. We honor that Conservative tradition, & reap the investments these students make in America, by supporting this highly successful talent pipeline.

Congress could act at any time to stop this. The 'Keep STEM Talent Act' has bipartisan support and it would remove the ability of any president to tax our international students out the door.

More info—>