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Take the first chart. The argument here is that productivity increases have been low in the US since the postwar period, so we need AI. See anything missing?

And why are the 50 years are the anomaly, not the shorter early post-war period? Meanwhile Rattner must know how feeble it sounds to ascribe postwar US growth to delayed benefits of electricity rather than the postwar world order, government investment in R&D, women entering the workforce, etc...

And talk about having it both ways. Solow was wrong about computers not increasing productivity, Rattner argues, but we need AI because productivity didn't increase. Similarly, if Solow was so completely wrong, why didn't the gains of the 90s persists?

The next five graphs are even less convincing, and the argumentation becomes even weaker. It was almost impossible for me to imagine how a seemingly intelligent person could have written it—but I found a secret clue buried in the text itself.

Just the general idea that increasing productivity benefits anyone but the richest people is pretty stale. The last 50 years show us that this is a false hope. It would have been better for most people to have falling productivity with redistribution.

Seth Trueger@mdaware.org

in theory the promise of AI is such wonderful abundance, we'd all live in wondrous affluence with minimal human labor, so surely AI leaders support UBI

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Occasionally they float the letters UBI like a spray of perfume on the breeze, and then they go back to dropping hundreds of millions on ad campaigns against corporate taxes

Musk will throw out weird, prophetic statements like 'in the future there won't be money' or 'nobody will work' but he never fills in any of the steps from here to there, which will have to involve UBI (or something akin to it).