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@randfish.bsky.social raised $29M for Moz and grew it past $50M ARR. By venture math, it was a disappointment. He spent 17 years learning why, then built his next company to break every rule that got him there. Link to full recording in 🧵:

Every founder has heard that venture is wrong for 99% of companies, but you could be the 1%. Rand went looking for the data. Of 1,120 venture-funded companies: → 77% written off as a loss → 20% acquired below 3x → 0.9% became unicorns

The fund-level numbers are worse. Only 5% of venture funds return more than 3x (the bar you'd need to beat the S&P 500). Statistically, the LPs should just buy an index fund.