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@randfish.bsky.social raised $29M for Moz and grew it past $50M ARR. By venture math, it was a disappointment. He spent 17 years learning why, then built his next company to break every rule that got him there. Link to full recording in 🧵:

Every founder has heard that venture is wrong for 99% of companies, but you could be the 1%. Rand went looking for the data. Of 1,120 venture-funded companies: → 77% written off as a loss → 20% acquired below 3x → 0.9% became unicorns

The fund-level numbers are worse. Only 5% of venture funds return more than 3x (the bar you'd need to beat the S&P 500). Statistically, the LPs should just buy an index fund.

Founders raising fear that companies that don't take venture get crushed by companies that do. Moz was beaten by Semrush and Ahrefs. Semrush didn't raise until it passed $60M in revenue, and Ahrefs never raised at all.