Post

George Pearkes
@peark.es

First results in the first round of the Brazilian Presidential election are in. Lula trailing but looks like the south is reporting faster which skews towards Bolsonaro. That said, prediction markets think this looks good for Bolsonaro (that has signal, unlike prior to vote counting).

George Pearkes
@peark.es

I don't have any predictions here but if Bolsonaro were to win a lot of takes confidently declaring that Brazil learned more from its first dabbling in fascism (Flavio's father's term, which ended in a Jan 6-style attack on Brazilian democracy) are going to end up aging VERY poorly.

Indira
@c0smicgoober.bsky.social

If I have learned anything in the last few elections, it is that people have short memories and don't mind fascism as long as it doesn't affect them

Patrick
@patrickin.bsky.social

They voted Bolsonaro out then prosecuted and convicted him as he deserved, unlike the absolute failure of the US system to hold Trump responsible. I thought Brazil had turned the page. Their system held. Putting Flavio in power would be as stupid as the US voting Trump back in. Sigh…

George Pearkes
@peark.es

Lula still trailing by a fair bit but Bolsonaro is under 50% *BRAZIL HEADS TO PRESIDENTIAL RUNOFF, DATAFOLHA PROJECTS

George Pearkes
@peark.es

Bolsonaro's lead ebbed all the way down to 2%-pt (47-45) but that was still stronger than expected and makes a Lula second round victory unlikely. Market reaction quite dramatic this morning: BRL/USD futures +4.5% (cash market not yet open), their biggest gain since June 2018. $EWZ +11%.

Amalia
@ollied68.bsky.social

The bigger problem is the vote for the extreme right and the right generally in other elections like the Senate and the Lower chamber.

Nate Rathjen
@rathjen.us

unless there’s some miraculous boost of 2nd round turnout among abstentionists, Lula is cooked — all of the minor candidates who are pulling more than a fraction of a percent are center-right to right-wing

M. Korhonen
@mkorhonen12345.bsky.social

Can Flavio pardon or release his father in way or another? By the way, this is why the ringleaders of a coup attempt should always be shot. That would put an end to the whole thing.

philtor
@philtor.bsky.social

Given all the recent examples - a Marcos in the Philippines, a Fujimori in Peru, and now (probably) a Bolsonaro in Brazil, I don't think we can rule out the possibility of a Trump kid winning in 2032 or 2036. What a miserable world.