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Starting at 9am - we'll unpick the latest OBR economic and fiscal outlook and the Chancellor's Spring Statement, with OBR Chair Richard Hughes, Economist @lindayueh.bsky.social @jamessmithrf.bsky.social & @ruthcurtice.bsky.social . Watch the event here www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/sprin...

We'll also livepost the key highlights from our overnight analysis of the Spring Statement shortly after 9am. You can read the full 36-page report - Unsung Britain bears the brunt: Putting the 2025 Spring Statement in context - here www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Kicking off our event, @jamessmithrf.bsky.social notes that the starting point for the Spring Statement was weak growth - with GDP growth for 2025 halved to 1%...

...but the OBR has responded by revised up its growth forecast for the remainder of the Parliament. The OBR is now far more optimistic than the Bank of Engand and external forecasters (by £24bn in terms of output in 2029). Will Britain's economic reality catch up with the OBR?

The key changes to the economic outlook was higher interest rate expectations, which in turn increased debt servicing costs by £10.1 billion in 2029-30.

But while borrowing was raised in every year of the forecast...

...policy was tightened (welfare cuts and departmental spending trimmed). Higher borrowing was entirely offset by lower spending, leaving the UK's current balance surplus in 2029-30 back where it was in the Autumn (£9.9 billion).

The £9.9 billion of headroom against the Chancellor's current balance fiscal rule is low by historic standards. The average change between forecasts is £20 billion. So the speculation around tax rises/spending cuts that's dominated the past few weeks is likely to come around again this Autumn.

The Chancellor has shaved a bit off departmental spending at the end of the Parliakent, but increased it in the intervening years. Real per capita spending in unprotected departments (Home Office, Justice, DWP, Defra etc) in 2029-30 will be broadly in line with 2015-16 funding levels.

On welfare, here's the good: A long overdue boost to unemployment support via increasing the standard rate in Universal Credit. Though the UK still has one of the lowest rates relative to previous earnings of any advanced economy.

The bad: two-thirds of the welfare cuts announced yesterday and last week fall on the poorest half of households. This was a political choice - a fairer approach, raising a similar amount, would have been to extend the personal tax threshold by another year.

The ugly: Welfare cuts concentrated on relatively few vulnerable households, who could lose thousands of pounds without transitional protection. Health & disability reform is needed. But prioritising short-term savings over long-term change doesn't bode well. Rushing reforms has failed in the past.