Resolution Foundation

Hello and welcome to all our new followers 👋 To ensure you're getting all the best analysis and insights, we've made a starter pack of all our staff on Bluesky. Make sure to give them a follow too ⤵️ go.bsky.app/5Anuz76

There's a risk energy prices will rise by a significant amount in January. To manage any big bill spikes the government should look at targeted energy discounts that reach people who need them most 👇 buff.ly/Rh86oQF

Welcome news today that one of the Government’s ‘everyday fixes’ is to end the Carer’s Allowance cliff edge – a damaging design flaw that we @resolutionfoundation.org have previously called on it to fix, and that will disproportionately benefit the bottom half of the income distribution. A thread…

Extending the Fuel Duty freeze should not be a Budget priority. It is not well targeted (higher-income households spend more proportionally on petrol) and fuel costs are still below historic highs. At a time of constrained public finances, regular fixed increases would be a more credible policy 👇

The UK has experienced the equivalent of 13 years’ worth of ‘normal’ inflation in five years. And the UK has been hit harder by the cost of living crisis than elsewhere. Read more ⤵️ buff.ly/QbGKuKU

John Healey would need £18 billion of headroom to maintain an equivalent buffer in 2029-30 to that Rachel Reeves had. Our estimates suggest that, pre-measures, headroom against the fiscal rules will have halved to around £12 billion in 2029-30. Thursday's post-budget event➡️ buff.ly/QyEbdtL

The cost of living remains a top priority for the public, according to Dharshini David ⤵️ buff.ly/eMUW13M

Minimum wage increases apparently +3.9% for adult and 18-20 rates. Convergence of youth rates paused, and NLW not following strong ASHE numbers. I think that's a good decision on both counts. Min wage setting should be flexible, and labour market is currently weak. www.ft.com/content/63b0...

Is the minimum wage to blame for falling youth employment? In our recent substack @nyecominetti.bsky.social digs into the youth employment stats, and gives his recommendation for minimum wage uprating ➡️ buff.ly/cqnDY99

Are we seeing green shoots in the UK's labour market? 🌱 While the number of payrolled employees had been falling for most of the last two years (down by 194k between October 2024 and July 2026), it has picked up in recent months, rising by 13k between July and September.

The Budget needs to deliver on three fronts – easing cost of living pressures, taking forward the PM's economic agenda and reassuring the markets. On Thursday morning we'll discuss how Budget 2026 measures up to these, with Jonathan Haskell and Stephanie Flanders. Sign-up➡️ buff.ly/QyEbdtL

"I am really disappointed that since then we haven't actually made any progress" Dhara Vyas, CEO of EnergyUK, joined us on the latest episode of High Resolution to discuss the need to accurately target government support with the cost of energy. Listen in full here ⤵️ buff.ly/UJHHTFi

Falling fertility is a common theme across many countries - in Britain, one in five couples have no children, and almost half of all families have only one. Next Tuesday, we'll be joined by Camilla Cavendish to discuss her new book 'Generation Maybe' which explores this trend. ➡️ buff.ly/pgTsOMi

Untargeted energy support came at a huge cost last time. Four years on, there’s still no better system. With time running short, RF has a proposal for how to get help to those who need it most this winter, fast. Listen to High Resolution here ⤵️ buff.ly/zYaJPaq

Last week the Gvmt announced plans to curb non-compete clauses in employment contracts, to make the labour market more competitive. Business groups weren't happy. But at the launch of his new book yesterday, US economist @arindube.bsky.social came out in favour of the move 👇 buff.ly/PFFNoZ6

🚨 Substack latest: Jackdaw is a distraction from Aberdeen’s much bigger problem @jonnymarshall.bsky.social and @zackleather.resolutionfoundation.org argue that the Government needs a more place-centric approach to shore up Aberdeen’s labour market. ⬇️ buff.ly/PkvIKOa

In a recent guest piece, Paul Gregg argues that Britain's welfare system has 'malfunctioned'. Paul takes a look back at how the welfare system has changed over the past few decades to pinpoint where he thinks things went wrong ⬇️ buff.ly/Z1h0987

📢 Catch the latest episode of the High Resolution pod📢 "It doesn't really make sense for the Government to borrow money forever, and then have to raise taxes forever, in order to give people cheaper energy bills" Ruth Curtice and Greg Thwaites broke down the Budget ⤵️ buff.ly/UJHHTFi

Growth has outpaced forecasts in the first half of 2026, although conflict in the Middle East has worsened the short-term outlook ⤵️ buff.ly/fnIp1IU

A majority of PIP recipients undertake economically valuable or wellbeing-enhancing activities that they could not do without support. Close to half (47 per cent) report that the benefit enables them to do at least one "economically valuable" activity, including working, training or caring.

Have you subscribed to High Resolution yet? 👀 "It doesn't really make sense for the Government to borrow money forever, and then have to raise taxes forever, in order to give people cheaper energy bills" Greg Thwaites broke down the upcoming Budget in our latest ep ⤵️ buff.ly/UJHHTFi

This week's ASHE release provides us with a snapshot of the UK labour market from earlier this year. The data shows that the share of workers in low pay failed to fall the first time in 15 years. It also gives an indication of what might happen to the minimum wage next year. buff.ly/9lSX3C8

Is the minimum wage to blame for falling youth employment? In our recent substack @nyecominetti.bsky.social digs into the youth employment stats, and gives his recommendation for minimum wage uprating ➡️ buff.ly/cqnDY99

🚨 Substack latest: Jackdaw is a distraction from Aberdeen’s much bigger problem @jonnymarshall.bsky.social and @zackleather.resolutionfoundation.org argue that the Government needs a more place-centric approach to shore up Aberdeen’s labour market. ⬇️ buff.ly/PkvIKOa

In a recent guest piece, Paul Gregg argues that Britain's welfare system has 'malfunctioned'. Paul takes a look back at how the welfare system has changed over the past few decades to pinpoint where he thinks things went wrong ⬇️ buff.ly/Z1h0987

This would be very welcome if confirmed. For more on how the government can better utilise public financial institutions to boost investment read our recent report Much Ado About Pufins…. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

John Healey would need £18 billion of headroom to maintain an equivalent buffer in 2029-30 to that Rachel Reeves had. Our estimates suggest that, pre-measures, headroom against the fiscal rules will have halved to around £12 billion in 2029-30.

In our new report on reforming PIP, our authors concluded that (improved) functional assessments remain the best approach to determining entitlement for the benefit. Louise Murphy explains why 👇

Most PIP recipients report multiple conditions. While three-in-ten (31 per cent) report having depression, just 2 per cent of all PIP recipients report depression as their only condition. Only one per cent (or less) report having only anxiety or ADHD.

With the 'affordability gap' between Local housing allowance (LHA) rates and market rents now at a record level, the Government should boost support at Wednesday's Budget 👇

Energy prices are set to rise this month and there's a risk they will rise by a significant amount in January. To manage any big bill spikes the government should look at targeted energy discounts that reach people who need them most 👇 buff.ly/Rh86oQF

The whole episode is well worth a listen. Greg speaks fast enough that you won't have to trouble the 1.25x button

My last one; we have some good reads for you.

The 'affordability gap' between Local housing allowance (LHA) rates and market rents has reached a record level. The average shortfall between LHA support & the 30th percentile rent level is now 23.3 per cent – equivalent to £170 a month for a typical family in a two-bedroom home.

Private renters on housing support already go without essentials. Last year, six-in-ten (58 per cent) working-age adults in private-renting families on housing support could not afford basic items 👉 buff.ly/tmfEAWh

📢 New episode of High Resolution just dropped 👀 "It doesn't really make sense for the Government to borrow money forever, and then have to raise taxes forever, in order to give people cheaper energy bills" @ruthcurtice.bsky.social & Greg Thwaites broke down the upcoming Budget ⤵️ buff.ly/UJHHTFi

Last week the Gvmt announced plans to curb non-compete clauses in employment contracts, to make the labour market more competitive. Business groups weren't happy. But at the launch of his new book yesterday, US economist @arindube.bsky.social came out in favour of the move 👇 buff.ly/PFFNoZ6

A majority of PIP recipients undertake economically valuable or wellbeing-enhancing activities that they could not do without support. Close to half (47 per cent) report that the benefit enables them to do at least one "economically valuable" activity, including working, training or caring.

It was also remarkably productive trip for those of us interested in raising pay growth / reducing pay inequality so thanks for the insights Arin! You can watch back our event here www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/fixin... And buy Arin's great book here www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/708374...

For his final edition of Top of the charts, @mikebrewerecon.bsky.social takes a closer look at what's happening to pay inequality in the UK. After a decade of decline, overall earnings inequality has ticked up across the board. Read why ➡️ buff.ly/adYUmWW

Are we seeing green shoots in the UK's labour market? 🌱 While the number of payrolled employees had been falling for most of the last two years (down by 194k between October 2024 and July 2026), it has picked up in recent months, rising by 13k between July and September.

Earlier this week we found out that CPI inflation rose to 3.5% in September, the highest rate in almost a year. Higher fuel prices were the biggest contributor to the rise in inflation between August and September – and they have gone up again since the September CPI reading was taken.

And we’re off! We’re talking wage growth and wage inequality with one of the worlds leading experts on the topic Professor Arin Dube Livestream here www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/fixin...

Young PIP recipients are no more likely to report mental health and neurodivergent conditions than older groups, with the sole exception of autism. Those aged 16-24 are less likely to report depression than 25-54-year-olds; less likely to report anxiety than 25-44-year-olds ➡️ buff.ly/eYndkHn