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Takaichi and Koizumi go into a runoff, as expected. Her popularity with the rank and file was key - she won over 40% of membership votes (Koizumi got 28%). Weird upsets do happen in the runoffs, but note that Takaichi didn't even come second in her colleagues' votes - she was third behind Hayashi.

Rob Fahey

@robfahey.net

The expectation now would be that most of Hayashi's votes will transfer to Koizumi, while most of Motegi and Kobayashi's votes will transfer to Takaichi, which would give Koizumi a narrow win. It won't be quite so tidy - lots of personality factors and loyalties of various kinds are also in play.

4/10/25, 5:08 am1 repost5 likes

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