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I recently worked with Abacus Data on a poll of Albertans, probing deeper into the separation debate. Today we are releasing the 2nd of 5 reports. This one looks at vote intentions: 🟢 64% Remain ⚫ 24% Commence separation process 🤷 9% Undecided 💨 3% Would skip question This varies by region. 🧵...

Of course, vote intention is one thing. Actual votes is quite another. So we ran a mathematical model (a Monte Carlo simulation) of 200,000 referendum outcomes. It found the 'Commence the separation process' vote is likely to land near 31%, based on current assumptions (including turnout).

Of the Albertans who would vote to commence the separation process: → 67% say they would actually vote to separate in a future, binding referendum. → 23% say their future vote would depend on circumstances at the time → 7% say they would vote to stay in Canada → 2% Unsure

Overall, most people are pretty certain of how they will vote. But the 'Remain' voters are more sure of their vote than the 'Commence' voters who, by comparison, are a bit less certain. Older voters tend to be more locked-in on their decisions than younger voters, too.