Robson Fletcher

Robson Fletcher

@robsonfletcher.com

Data & Storytelling Strategist. Views my own and subject to change, especially in light of new evidence. 🌐 robsonfletcher.com

15.2K followers3.6K following1.7K posts

Pinned

As they say, *ahem*, some personal news: After 20 years in journalism, including a decade at CBC News, I'm moving on to something different. I’m launching my own independent practice as a Data & Storytelling Strategist. Yes, I'm giving up a stable job in order to hang up my own shingle. Why? 🧵👇

With all the Connor Hellebuyck to New Jersey trade coverage I'm honestly shocked that we haven't seen 'A Helle of a deal with the Devils' as a headline yet

Over $4,000 for KidSport Manitoba now from fans of Hellebucks.com Thank you everyone. 🙂

Robson Fletcher@robsonfletcher.com

My hellebucks.com site has spread beyond my wildest expectations, with 700K+ pageviews. With news Hellebuyck's suspension is due to end, I've just updated the site with a new countdown. I also added a donation link for KidSport Manitoba. It has nearly $1,000 in donations already! Thank you, all ❤️

This morning I activated the overhead lights of a crosswalk & started crossing with my two young kids. Two cars waiting at stop signs to cross the same road took the opportunity to proceed. A Tesla driver then blew through the crosswalk, oblivious to us, almost hitting us AND both cars. 🙃

Robson Fletcher reposted

As the count continues, we are getting a clearer picture of the results from Monday's AB referendum: 1. Separation was trounced 2. No real mandate on the heavily pushed Q1-9 Big picture: the Urban-Rural divide Cgy+Edm voted No on all questions Rest of Alberta (combined) voted Yes

Robson Fletcher reposted

This is a publicly funded government agency refusing to share weather warnings and their own public warnings with a journalist at Global News, one of the larger mainstream news outlets in Canada. I really want you to sit with the bare facts of that.

Robson Fletcher reposted

KidSport is such a great organization. This was an easy donation.

Robson Fletcher@robsonfletcher.com

Over $2,000 in donations now for KidSport! All from fans of a slightly petty website about a Winnipeg goalie not getting paid. 😅 Hellebucks.com

We asked Albertans in September how they believed Danielle Smith would vote if Alberta held a referendum on actually separating from Canada and becoming a sovereign country. This is how they responded: ⚫ 48% - Smith would vote to separate 🟢 27% - Smith would vote to remain ❔ 26% - Unsure

Over $2,000 in donations now for KidSport! All from fans of a slightly petty website about a Winnipeg goalie not getting paid. 😅 Hellebucks.com

Robson Fletcher@robsonfletcher.com

My hellebucks.com site has spread beyond my wildest expectations, with 700K+ pageviews. With news Hellebuyck's suspension is due to end, I've just updated the site with a new countdown. I also added a donation link for KidSport Manitoba. It has nearly $1,000 in donations already! Thank you, all ❤️

The referendum drama in Alberta is over. Up next: the highly contentious redrawing of electoral boundaries! The advisory panel that was appointed in June is due to give its report to the UCP-controlled Select Special Committee *tomorrow* (Oct. 22). Some thoughts on this from a poll we did in May:

robsonfletcher.comAlbertans are paying attention to electoral boundary changes and uncomfortable with what they see · Robson FletcherTwo-thirds of Albertans say they're aware of the province's unusual electoral boundary process — and most want it out of politicians' hands.

A striking series of results in the latest Abacus Data poll I worked on, depicting another post-referendum challenge for Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. Most Albertans want the government to turn the page from the separation debate. The cost of living, health care, & housing are top concerns. 🧵

View full thread

With her televised address, Smith began trying to turn the page, but she faces a double challenge: 1) shifting the narrative away from separation & toward the issues Albertans are more concerned with 2) rebuilding her government's standing on those very issues. I spoke with CTV News about that:

ctvnews.ca‘Deep hole’: Poll finds Albertans want UCP to refocus on affordability, health careAs the question of separation subsides in Alberta, new polling indicates residents want to see the province refocus its energy on every day issues.

A striking series of results in the latest Abacus Data poll I worked on, depicting another post-referendum challenge for Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. Most Albertans want the government to turn the page from the separation debate. The cost of living, health care, & housing are top concerns. 🧵

View full thread

In this same poll, two-thirds of Albertans said they want the government to turn the page on the separation debate and focus on other things. Btu 61% expect Albertans will vote again on separation and, even with a majority vote to remain, 73% think the question will return in one form or another.

A striking series of results in the latest Abacus Data poll I worked on, depicting another post-referendum challenge for Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. Most Albertans want the government to turn the page from the separation debate. The cost of living, health care, & housing are top concerns. 🧵

But those very issues are also where Albertans currently give the provincial government the lowest marks: 🔴 77% say it's doing a "poor" or "very poor" job on cost of living 🔴 70% say "poor" or "very poor" job on housing affordability 🔴 64% say "poor" or "very poor" job on health care

Robson Fletcher reposted

We are two solitudes: the Urban/Rural divide Other than Q5 (proof of citizenship to vote) and Q10 (separation) the votes in yesterday's referendum split across the urban/rural divide. (Note: still lots of counting to do, especially for Qs 1-9)

This is an excellent point. After some of those "dark days" a decade ago, we've seen remarkable accuracy in recent Canadian polling, across provinces and election types. The last poll I worked on with Abacus Data on Alberta's referendum is just one of the latest examples:

Aleksander Bajrak@abajrak.bsky.social

But I do believe we're overdue for an explanation as to why 🇨🇦 polls and models (despite industry controversies similar to the US') have trended more accurate in recent years. Per Andrea Perrella (@lispop.bsky.social) in 2015, Canadian polling was in "dark days". Imagine if she said that this month.

My hellebucks.com site has spread beyond my wildest expectations, with 700K+ pageviews. With news Hellebuyck's suspension is due to end, I've just updated the site with a new countdown. I also added a donation link for KidSport Manitoba. It has nearly $1,000 in donations already! Thank you, all ❤️

hellebucks.comHellebucks: how much salary Connor Hellebuyck is forfeiting, live$38,660 a day. The clock stops Oct. 23. Help Jets fans raise one day's worth for KidSport Manitoba.

Just voted in Alberta's 10-question referendum. Stood outside the voting location with a half dozen people waiting for doors to open. Talked with a retired guy in line about elk hunting and the cost of living. Doors opened late, at 9:12 am, but things went fairly smoothly once we were inside... 🧵

View full thread

When I had finished marking all 10 ballots, an Elections Alberta worker helped make sure they each went into the correct box. I was the first voter he dealt with that morning. He was already chuckling about how many ballots there are. I wished him good luck with the rest of the day.

Apart from the late opening, the process was quick and efficient, and the staff were all very friendly. On the way out they gave me a sticker. I only realized after putting it on my hoodie that it says "First-Time Voter!" 😅

Just voted in Alberta's 10-question referendum. Stood outside the voting location with a half dozen people waiting for doors to open. Talked with a retired guy in line about elk hunting and the cost of living. Doors opened late, at 9:12 am, but things went fairly smoothly once we were inside... 🧵

View full thread

I got the stack of ballots in order from 1 to 10, with the separation question (Question 10) at the bottom. That's a bit different from what Elections Alberta has said should happen.

In the voting booth, it was a bit unusual dealing with 10 separate ballots. It was a process of unfolding, reading the verbose questions, then marking and refolding (each ballot needed to be folded twice) & keeping them all in order. Manageable but more cumbersome than a typical voting process.

Just voted in Alberta's 10-question referendum. Stood outside the voting location with a half dozen people waiting for doors to open. Talked with a retired guy in line about elk hunting and the cost of living. Doors opened late, at 9:12 am, but things went fairly smoothly once we were inside... 🧵

I didn't bring the voter card that I had received in the mail but an election worker at the entrance found me on her list and sent me to my corresponding numbered table to get my ballots. At that table, however, they couldn't find me on the list they had there so they wrote me in by hand...

"The flames were blinding, a source on scene said, adding troops were loading the injured to bring back to base before going back into the field to collect more of their comrades... More than a dozen CAF personnel were also parachuted in ... arriving at the health centre to respond"

globalnews.ca7 dead, dozens injured in explosion and fire at CFB Wainwright | Globalnews.caAt least seven people are dead and dozens more left injured from an explosion and fire at the Canadian Forces Base Wainwright, according to multiple military sources.

What you've gotta wear when doing back-to-back media interviews on two very different topics in one morning: 1. A television interview about hellebucks.com 2. A print interview about new polling results from Abacus Data

One other thing worth adding to this thread is the breakdown of party supporters by region, specifically Calgary. In our early-September poll, the UCP held a slight lead in Calgary. In this mid-October poll, the NDP now holds that slight edge:

Robson Fletcher@robsonfletcher.com

I've been working with Abacus Data on another poll of Albertans and we have new results out today. Here's a quick thread on some that stand out to me. 1. VOTE INTENT: The UCP had a 13-point lead in the poll we did in September. In this latest October poll, that was down to a 5-point lead. 🧵

I've been working with Abacus Data on another poll of Albertans and we have new results out today. Here's a quick thread on some that stand out to me. 1. VOTE INTENT: The UCP had a 13-point lead in the poll we did in September. In this latest October poll, that was down to a 5-point lead. 🧵

View full thread

The question of moving on after the referendum vs. continue to press for independence splits UCP supporters nearly down the middle. This suggests the issue will continue to divide the party even after the Oct. 19 vote, creating an ongoing challenge for Premier Danielle Smith.

I've been working with Abacus Data on another poll of Albertans and we have new results out today. Here's a quick thread on some that stand out to me. 1. VOTE INTENT: The UCP had a 13-point lead in the poll we did in September. In this latest October poll, that was down to a 5-point lead. 🧵

View full thread

Two-thirds of Albertans want to move on from the separation debate and have the provincial government focus on health care, affordability and jobs, instead. BUT And there's a big BUT here ...

... as much as they'd like to see the separation issue fade after the referendum, most Albertans don't expect that it will. 73% expect the question will return, in one form or another, even if the remain side wins the Oct. 19 vote. Only 14% believe that would settle the issue for a generation.

I've been working with Abacus Data on another poll of Albertans and we have new results out today. Here's a quick thread on some that stand out to me. 1. VOTE INTENT: The UCP had a 13-point lead in the poll we did in September. In this latest October poll, that was down to a 5-point lead. 🧵

Despite some hiccups in the referendum process to date (incorrect wording on early mail-in ballots, struggle to hire enough election workers), voters still have a high degree of trust in Elections Alberta. They have less trust in each other, when it comes to respecting the outcome of the vote.

"Donald Trump is becoming slightly less central to how Canadians think about the country’s challenges. In early September, 46% identified Trump and his administration as a top-three issue. Today, it’s 40%. In Quebec, that number has fallen from 59% to 49% in just three weeks."

davidcoletto.substack.comThe Liberal Lead Hasn't Moved. But the Political Environment Is Changing.Our latest Abacus Data poll finds the Liberals still 12 points ahead. But Trump is becoming slightly less central to the public agenda, government approval has softened, and affordability is demanding

Robson Fletcher reposted

I didn’t know who to attribute for the creation of this (should have looked more carefully). Well framed, @robsonfletcher.com! And talk about using data to tell a story. If that’s the kind of help you’re looking for, it looks like Robson’s your person.

To any of my Winnipeg followers on Bluesky, tune in to CJOB at 9:05 a.m. on Friday morning if you wanna hear me talk about this hellebucks.com website 😅

hellebucks.comHellebucks: how much salary Connor Hellebuyck is forfeiting, live$38,660 a day. 45 cents a second. A live tally of the salary Connor Hellebuyck is giving up while the Jets play without him.
Robson Fletcher@robsonfletcher.com

Nine days into the NHL's regular season, the Winnipeg Jets are 2nd in the league, without Connor Hellebuyck playing. Hellebuyck, meanwhile, has forfeited US $344,044 (and counting) since the Jets started their season without him. You can track how much money he's giving up, second by second, here:

From @climateinstitute.bsky.social in April: "Heat pumps produce heating at two to five times the efficiency of gas furnaces. Even compared to other electric options, heat pumps are about three times more efficient than electric resistance heating."

climateinstitute.caHow governments can help households electrify with cleaner energyTo reduce Canada’s emissions in the most inexpensive way, most household energy use must be electrified. Still, beneath the ...
CTV News Northern Ontario@ctvnorthernontario.bsky.social

Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Thursday that his government is investing $2 billion into a new national heat pump rebate program, with the goal of incentivizing Canadians to retrofit more energy efficient heating options.

Connor Hellebuyck's forfeited salary is up to $364,671 (U.S.) now. That's over half a million Canadian. Watching it add up in real time is kinda mesmerizing: hellebucks.com

hellebucks.comConnor Hellebuyck has forfeited $364,671That's as of Oct. 8, 2026, 10:23 a.m. CT. It goes up 45 cents every second. Watch it live.
Robson Fletcher@robsonfletcher.com

Nine days into the NHL's regular season, the Winnipeg Jets are 2nd in the league, without Connor Hellebuyck playing. Hellebuyck, meanwhile, has forfeited US $344,044 (and counting) since the Jets started their season without him. You can track how much money he's giving up, second by second, here:

Just saw a Reddit thread in which people were discussing being old and I haven't stopped laughing at this one comment: "So, recently our 21 year old (252 months) asked us what number we called in an emergency before September 11th happened 🤦🏽‍♂️ "

"Rath asked the court to release an additional $776,469 to cover $350,000 in legal fees and $426,469 in living expenses." "[The judge] found ... his financial disclosures were 'incomplete and unreliable' leaving her unable to determine whether he had other funds available to cover his expenses."

cbc.caAlberta separatist lawyer denied access to more cash from funds frozen in dispute with First Nation | CBC NewsAn Alberta Court of King’s Bench judge has rejected Alberta lawyer Jeff Rath’s request to access an additional $776,000 to cover his personal and legal expenses while his accounts are frozen by a cour...

Robson Fletcher reposted

Applications are now open for the 2027–2028 House of Commons Page Program! This opportunity gives 40 bilingual students from across Canada the chance to work at the HoC while beginning their first year of post-secondary studies. 📅 Apply by November 8, 2026. 👉 Learn more ourcommons.ca/page