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I have a hunch that a bunch of hobby open source is moribund and we’re going to see a form of closed source collectives emerge. I’m thinking about retro game decompilation groups here, but I suspect they won’t be the only ones.

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On the other end of the spectrum, I think corporate-sponsored open source is going to slow down dramatically until legal systems decide whether clean room via LLM is real or not.

That side of the world was already wrestling a similar problem with cloud giants eating their lunch (see: the proliferation of non-FOSS source available licenses).

Even if "clean-room" reimplementations turn out to be infringing, it'll be a case-by-case question that will take years to prove in court, often against a better funded legal team. So I think restrictive source licenses are pretty much dead regardless of that legal question.

Fair point. Even with legal precedent on your side, it’s still expensive.