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I don’t like the “people are voting with their feet” line about California and NYC’s population loss/decline. People aren’t voting with their feet, they’re losing the game of musical chairs. To the extent population is falling, it’s due to shrinking household sizes, not vacancy. Demand remains high.

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What really sucks is saying "COVID lead to higher housing prices" in NYC sounds absurd on its face. But lockdown/working from home --> smaller household sizes --> more demand for limited housing --> higher prices.

Negligible increase in NY. Has not fully recovered from high in 2020. Meanwhile, TX saw a 19% population increase between 2010 and 2022. Immigration, legal and illegal, higher birth rate and in migration from other states. We shall see if this continues.

For a lot of people it’s just that as nice as some of these places are, sometimes 4,000 sf for a family of 5 but not surfing is a better bundle than 1,500 sf and surfing occasionally. It’s not exactly a vote but it’s not exactly losing the game either.

Yeah, a lot of people want to live in NYC and CA and MA. But they just lose the game of luck. I’m constantly struck by how my mom in PA has a new, larger, better located house compared to mine in MA yet it is 1/2 the price.