Post

Stephen Wolf
@stephenwolf.bsky.social

[Left] 44% of congressional seats in 2026 are in states drawn to favor the GOP and just 26% for Dems. [Right] Depending on the 2026 elections, Dems could redraw several states in 2028 to level the playing field. Those %s could reach parity for the first time since the GOP gained a big edge in 2002

23 reposts75 likes

Stephen Wolf
@stephenwolf.bsky.social

GOP gerrymandering shifted the median congressional seat from Trump+3.1 in 2024 to +4.5 in 2026. He won the 2026 median by 3 points more than his national margin. That gap could grow by several points in 2028 if only the GOP redraws more states, but new Dem maps may be able to fully counteract them

Stephen Wolf
@stephenwolf.bsky.social

Democrats in 2026 are set to win by enough that gerrymandering won't save the GOP's majority. But there's no guarantee that 2028 will be so favorable—or especially 2030 if a Dem is president. Dems drawing counter-gerrymanders in 2028 keeps the House winnable so they can pass a national ban in 2029

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf.bsky.social

GOP gerrymandering shifted the median congressional seat from Trump+3.1 in 2024 to +4.5 in 2026. He won the 2026 median by 3 points more than his national margin. That gap could grow by several points in 2028 if only the GOP redraws more states, but new Dem maps may be able to fully counteract them

Declan
@declanthewise.bsky.social

A fully gerrymandered Congress will never ban their own gerrymandered districts. These people are not going to be martyrs. Has to be done at the state level. Dem states should use their upcoming advantage to offer bistate pacts to Rep states. If refused, then Dems can gerrymander away.

Declan
@declanthewise.bsky.social

For 2028, Washington, with its 10 districts and ~D+10 PVI, can offer to keep its fair-ish map if Indiana (9 districts and ~R+9 PVI) redraws theirs to be as fair. If Indiana refuses, then Washington has the moral authority to gerrymander as much as they are able.