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A government u-turn on indefinite leave to remain would certainly not cost £10 billion - since the proposals would not have saved 90%+ of this figure. However, it is now a headache for the government that the Home Secretary made that claim in March. They should produce the real numbers

The Home Office told me at the time that the claim of a £10 billion "lifetime cost" (£9.5 billion) did not mean the Home Sec meant the government's proposals would save that £9.5 billion, but would not say what fiscal difference the government's proposals would make. bsky.app/profile/sund...

Delaying settlement by 5-10 years makes no lifetime savings of the costs at 30 years. Just a marginal saving (about 5-10% of the £9.5bn) in first 5-10 years. If all care workers forced to leave, that £9,5bn is saved but 30 years of offsetting contributions sacrificed bsky.app/profile/sund...

There is a much smaller fiscal cost of the settlement proposals than was suggested (maybe £600m-£1bn in next decade) but Home Office has stonewalled MP and Peer questions for the actual saving. There is a much bigger fiscal cost of the net migration reduction than that. bsky.app/profile/sund...