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I'm going to start this thread on the presidential count in Brazil—so people who are interesting can follow along. With 3% of vote counted, Lula up 51.3 to 48.7 (that's a lead of 103K). Pattern in 2022 & in R1 was Lula down big at 1st, then closing gap, but that's shaken up by today's 2-hour delay.

The state that is furthest in its count, by far, is the Distrito Federal (Brasilia): 31% of precincts have been counted. Result so far? Bolsonaro is up 9.2%. Bolsonaro won the first round here 51% to 38%. His dad won the 2022 runoff here 59% to 41%.

Another striking result *so far*: The state of Tocantins. It went for Bolsonaro in the first round, 50% to 43%. (A reminder Boslonaro won the first round by 2.) With 40% precincts now counted here, Lula is up 51% to 49%.

Another state has joined the group that's counted at least 50% of precincts: Paraná, in the South. Bolsonaro is up by 25%. (He led by 28.9% here in R1. His dad won by 25% four years ago.) Also noteworthy: Bolsonaro's edge in Distrito Federal now at +8.8% with 87% reporting.

For people keeping an eye on countrywide results: Bolsonaro is now up with 25% reporting, 50.5% to 49.5%. (That's a lead of 260K votes.) Right-friendly states have reported more first—as they had three weeks ago, & in 2022. Left-friendly North slower. W we're keeping an eye on state-level shifts.

Is this site legit? It shows at the moment a 77% chance Lula will win? www.poliwave.com/br/live/pres...

More states have counted the majority of their precincts: —Espírito Santo, 70% reporting: Bolsonaro leads by 13.4%. (He won by 17% in R1. His father won by 16%.) —Mato Grosso do Sul, 82% reporting: Bolsonaro up 21%. (He won R1 by 23.9%. His dad by 19%.)